Ming-Chi Kuo on Apple-Intel partnership, with TSMC lurking in the back

[NY_Sam2]

Ming-Chi Kuo on Apple-Intel partnership, with TSMC lurking in the back

https://twitter.com/x/status/2054987772289810884

▌Below are my latest industry checks on the Apple-Intel partnership, which help interpret it at a deeper level:

1. 1. Apple has kicked off low-end/legacy iPhone, iPad, and Mac processors at Intel on the 18A-P series (using Foveros packaging).
2. 2. The order mix is roughly 80% iPhone, mirroring Apple's end-device sales mix.
3. 3. Apple's wafer plans at Intel reflect the technology lifecycle of the 18A-P series: small-scale testing in 2026, ramp in 2027, continued growth in 2028, and decline in 2029.
4. 4. Apple is also actively evaluating Intel's other advanced-node technologies.
5. 5. Intel's mass production timeline and shipment scale remain unclear, and assemblers/EMS have yet to see any shipment schedules.
6. 6. Intel's 2027 yield target is to first stabilize at 50–60% or higher.
7. 7. Even if Intel's initial shipments go smoothly, TSMC will still retain over 90% of supply share.
8. 8. Internally, sentiment at Intel toward Apple’s orders appears mixed.
9. 9. Apple began discussions with Intel well before TSMC's advanced-node capacity became tight.
10. 10. Apple recognizes that TSMC's resources will continue tilting toward AI.

Building on these findings, this analysis examines the three parties’ strategic responses to the structural shift in advanced-node manufacturing. TSMC stands out here, as the industry leader and a passive party in this event. What it appears able to do is limited, but the situation deserves deeper reading.

▌Apple is systematically cultivating Intel to become a long-term key supplier:
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