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TSMC faces a capacity shortage, leading six major foundries to choose Samsung over Intel for manufacturing?
On the 19th, well-known tech leaker Jukan pointed out through the social media platform X that a research report recently released by a team of analysts led by Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank indicated that TSMC's 3nm production capacity is currently extremely tight. Not only is it sold out in 2026, but orders are even backlogged into 2027, forcing TSMC to significantly increase its capital expenditure in 2026 to US$52-56 billion, higher than Deutsche Bank's original forecast of US$50 billion and the market consensus of US$46 billion.
This shows that TSMC's capital expenditure plan for 2025 is "too conservative" compared to the explosive demand for AI. The current situation is not just a shortage of CoWoS packaging capacity, but also a serious shortage of core wafer manufacturing (especially 3nm process).
Despite the mixed track record of Samsung and Intel's foundry services, Deutsche Bank points out that Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek now have no other choice. This means that TSMC's market share in the advanced process foundry market is expected to drop from 95% to 90%.
According to Deutsche Bank analysis, Samsung's Taylor, Texas foundry (SF2P) may be more attractive than Intel's. "For customers looking for alternative supply sources, Samsung's Taylor plant is probably their first choice."
The report states that Qualcomm and AMD are the most likely customers to consider Samsung, while Apple and Broadcom are reportedly evaluating Intel's technology. However, Deutsche Bank believes that while Intel's 14A process does have potential, "there is still much work to be done."
https://technews.tw/2026/01/20/tsmc-capacity-rumor/
With AI driving up chip demand and TSMC 's capacity remaining fully utilized, Deutsche Bank observes that AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple are now urgently seeking second suppliers. Samsung Electronics Co. has become the preferred outsourcing partner for these tech giants, as it is more attractive than Intel Corp.'s wafer foundry services.On the 19th, well-known tech leaker Jukan pointed out through the social media platform X that a research report recently released by a team of analysts led by Robert Sanders at Deutsche Bank indicated that TSMC's 3nm production capacity is currently extremely tight. Not only is it sold out in 2026, but orders are even backlogged into 2027, forcing TSMC to significantly increase its capital expenditure in 2026 to US$52-56 billion, higher than Deutsche Bank's original forecast of US$50 billion and the market consensus of US$46 billion.
This shows that TSMC's capital expenditure plan for 2025 is "too conservative" compared to the explosive demand for AI. The current situation is not just a shortage of CoWoS packaging capacity, but also a serious shortage of core wafer manufacturing (especially 3nm process).
Despite the mixed track record of Samsung and Intel's foundry services, Deutsche Bank points out that Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek now have no other choice. This means that TSMC's market share in the advanced process foundry market is expected to drop from 95% to 90%.
According to Deutsche Bank analysis, Samsung's Taylor, Texas foundry (SF2P) may be more attractive than Intel's. "For customers looking for alternative supply sources, Samsung's Taylor plant is probably their first choice."
The report states that Qualcomm and AMD are the most likely customers to consider Samsung, while Apple and Broadcom are reportedly evaluating Intel's technology. However, Deutsche Bank believes that while Intel's 14A process does have potential, "there is still much work to be done."
https://technews.tw/2026/01/20/tsmc-capacity-rumor/