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When Pat took over, the plan was 100% to end process development.... sooner than 2030 for sure. I have written on how this played out and what changed when Pat took over.
The question is whether changing that plan was a good decision or not. We shall see. but at least it is no longer a risk to...
18A is cheaper per transitor at target yields than 20A.
Reminder Intel 4 and Intel 20A were always checkout nodes..... I actually thought that was a brilliant idea.... get something out on 1-2 products, then optimize it. The 20A checkout option was financial disaster (due to minimal 18A...
I think the plan was pretty clear. 2 fabs in Arizona, 2 Fabs In Ohio.... then israel then Germany. They committed to have 4 new fabs by 2026 minimum. They have one fab now, 52 doesnt hit full planned capacity until end of year. As LBT clearly discussed, that plan put Intel in a very dangerous...
Being at low yield, 9 months before PRQ is not really that shocking. The only shock was to people who believed PG when he said 20A was cancelled because 18A was doing so well..... it wasnt. 18A could be break even this year. we will see financial progress when Q2 results come in.
That is quite a nice bit of hyperbole. Lets get to 2B in sales external (top 20 foundry/osat, 5% of Intel revenue) and go from there.
When do people think glass substrates are ramping into production (end customers buying products containing glass substrates)?
correct and half of the external is not really external.... it is Altera.
the revenue increase in Q1 2016 was due to 18A wafers being sold to product group for about 30K each and Intel 3 valume increase.
All this from 10Q
Watch or read the whole transcript of this presentation..... not just articles and AI summaries LBT shares EVERYTHING and is very honest about where Intel was when he took over. I can tell you that It is very accurate and open.
Side note: He talks about Yields going up 7% per month since he...
I have seen that "no B step" demand on and off for 30 years. it is hardly new
I can make a A-10 stepping (the things you can do edits are amazing)
I can ship a marginal part or do a B.... your choice
Also I can spend tons of time on presilicon or A0 Validation or speed new steppings. your...
Then you need to include all the packaging houses in the external foundry camp. In that case, IFS is not currently a top 20 source of packaging and foundry sales to other companies.
Intels internal doesnt matter. Intel cannot survive doing process development and fab just internal .... Swan...
All that has changed based on the lack of traction. the goal was 15B in external revenue. Add that to internal and IFS makes sense.
and If intel is going to claim packaging as foundry, then you need to add in ASE and AMKOR.
Intel needs 15B in external revenue to make the finances make sense...
Great input. I think most "journalists" don't know where any Musk sites are.
I love it when people tell me all the details of what Terafab will be and they have not even approved the site plan or tax abatements. Now, apparently some jounalists dont know where it is LOL
FYI: Musk has also...
I would dig into the details of what Tenstorrent is actually doing before buying them. Its hasnt been as successful as I had hoped.
On the other hand, I bashed Cerebras as overhyped for a long time.... I later found out they actually have a pretty successful niche going there.
foundry and outsourcing has less supply issues than internal manufacturing. and IDM is not able to respond faster than a highly capable foundry in actual practice. I can give tons of example and why this is true
If taiwan is invaded and Taiwan does not reach an agreement with PRC, It will make ALL of the "conflicts" of the last 40 years look trivial. Having Intel manufacture semis will not change this. 80% of all tech goes through China or Taiwan at least once.
I think trade is good and should be...
I think you are very correct in your assessment of what intel is looking at. Going from Semi Leadership to foundry to licensing has been tried before. Unfortunately the math ends up the same.
The difference today is that we live in a very strange nationalistic world ..... "profitability...
Its was a brilliant move by both sides.... incredible win win. US went from giving Intel 10B in gifts to ownership and profiting 40B on the deal. Intel doesnt have to jump through
hoops for grant money.
