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depends on chip size. there are 25M DC CPUs per year, 250M PC CPUs, 1.4B phone processors, IDK how many GPUs/TPUs
3M TPUS is a good chunk but if it was one chip it is about 1/10th of a Fab. 1-2B in Revenue including packaging.
When the smoke clears, I think we will find 18A and 14A are like 20A and 18A were supposed to be . 18A is a checkout on two unbelievably complicated architecture changes and 14A is a optimizations and shrink. not sure what 18AP is but if it runs in Fab 52, the tool set is done.
This would be a great example of why Pat was fired. As some point "optimism" becomes " misinformation" . The day after he left, even before LBT, there were a number of "OK, here is what is actually happening" meetings and presentations. 20A was cancelled in spring 2024 and announced in Sept 2024...
They are working on it. Unfortunately, often the wafer cost challenges are created during TD with tool choices and process choices.... and then you need a loaded fabs. TSMC is outstanding at this stuff. Intel is still learning. I can give lots of examples offline
the next 6 months will give us...
I think you are overcomplicating this. People like Intels old products and prices for those. Intel thought they would move to new nodes, but they did not. and the margins were higher on Intel 7 because Intel 3 and 18A were struggling on execution.... 3 and 18 are better now.
So Intel needs to...
Zinsners commentary is always awsome and spot on. He and LBT really understand what Intel's cultural problems were and I hear that he has addressed them.
Yup that is it. Basically PG said to replace Intel 7 with Intel 3.4.18A. Demand never showed up (3 is the biggest issue for servers). Intel 7 went up. People love intel 7. this was highlighted multiple times since Jan 2025.
Again, I made the comment before, Intel used to force people to new...
@floppydisk
seeking alpha is what I use (only good reason to use seekingalpha). If its still free
intel site video https://bofa.veracast.com/webcasts/bofa/globaltech2026/dwAy82.cfm
UPDATE: I just listened to audio. As I mentioned before, Intel is RAMPING Intel 7 wafer starts in 2026. In 2027...
FYI: As I have mentioned before, GPUs were a huge push at Intel around the same timeframe. Many people thought GPUs were the future of all compute, especially data center. Also the AI future was heavily discussed.
I am told CUDA was a big differentiator. But I do know that Intel executing GPU...
So Micron, Hynix and Samsung DRAM market share are about they same as they were 7 years ago. Correct? and the HBM market share for Micron is about what the DRAM market share is (only outlier is Hynix having the dominant lead). Micron was way behinf 3 years ago but fixed that.
With all of the...
TSMC is a huge partner. enabling Intels roadmap.
We can call them competitors when Intel revenue from external wafer sales is >purchases from TSMC. Right now it is over 10 to 1 on purchases from TSMC
I am a fan of sovereign wealth funds to grow new industries (not buy into a bubble at its peak)
is it a one time 50% stock tax LOL?
and we all share the Profit and loss of OPEN AI and Anthropic .... YAY!
I think LBT did a great summary on this. First window was clearly missed for 18A.... everyone looked.... everyone passed. there is a lot of follow on opportunities for 18A for next 3-5 years
and LBT is trying to hit first window on 14A. I cannot imaging a company prioritizing Intel over TSMC...
the revenue would indicate that there are no large volume packaging projects for other companies in production as of Q1 2026. I am sure they are working details on packaging development projects and addressing the challenges.
If you told me to do a package as complex as Clearwater Forest using...
I cant give exact numbers but, no, we cannot assume yield is 70% to 80% today. But your equation is correct. you are on the right track!! :ROFLMAO: :LOL:
100% agree
the shortage gives them the leverage to push people off of 7 (there are people on 10 too). they we can see if they can make 18A cost effective with higher volume.
FYI: one way to track this. In future we will know that there is success when Intel states that GM improved due to...
Interesting points on this. Couple items:
1) TSMC does put HBM packages assembled by others onto CoWoS. They do not put logic die from other fabs on their packaging
2) One technical note for TSMC reasoning. It can be very difficult to control advanced packaging of logic die if you do not...
