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100% agree. EU countries STILL buy energy from Russia.... funding their own future invasion.
I hope i am correct in my prediction that China will not have a military invasion.
I also do not think that IF China invaded, TSMC would shut down..... just an opinion.
So lets poke at that a Little:
If you do Fab in the US. you need to ship most units (at least some) outside the US
What if other countries put a tariff on you? I checked and other countries are not fond of working with the US.
What if the president says you cannot ship 18A outside the US? or...
Perhaps.... I downplay this because I keep talking to Taiwanese friends who are not worried for whatever reason ... and because if there is an invasion, I really dont care about Datacenter or phone chips. thats just me
But the real reason behind the picture is "I think Other companies are...
"relative capex" is not the big news IMO. Google is ADDING 100B in new spending over the next year.... we did not see this coming in August. Hence the current boom. 100B added to the semiconductor hardware ecosystem by one company.
Side note: We are not at equilibrium so we dont know what the...
Dan puts this well. No one is really saying "I will look at TSMC and Rapidus in parallel to see who wins". If you are "not TSMC" person, then you look at Intel, Rapidus, Samsung etc.
you cannot have a sane comparison of TSMC and Rapidus.
even Not TSMC people are wildly different:
1)...
Intel decided 20A and 18A were all BPSD..... a jump ahead technology. Also the roadmap today is not what the roadmap was in 2022. Products were cancelled and delayed and changes
If Intel still had its memory business, it would be the highest revenue business unit at Intel. Intel will probably get back into memory right before the crash LOL
That said, from what I hear, this is not really a new memory type as much as a optimized DRAM for GPU accelerators. Intels model is...
So if chinese DRAM is put onto motherboard in Malaysia, and then the motherboard is put into a server in Mexico. and it is imported to a server farm in the US. No Chinese tariff. Correct?
Obviously 14A is not ramping, Obviously nothing is going into Fab62 (Fab 52 is not fully tooled out yet). I will give it credit for digging into reports.
Fun Side note: So I used my Gemini to ask where the tools are going ....... wait for it.... it referenced YOUR post in THIS thread on...
The "start risk production" is for PR. Intel revenue doesnt show up until about 1 year after they claim risk production:
No 14A products out in 2027. Most likely no significantly volume out in 2028. Reminder, 18A does not have significant volume in 2026
Intel does not currently plan any...
great input.
One model, I am working on is : What is the response to these incredible DRAM price increases? OEMs are going to have to figure it out. I am not sure but prioritizing lunar lake makes sense.
This is for corporate, but for overall, : just re-checked Well over half of all PC CPUs...
I like Moorinsights.... they have good contacts. This is a good marketing presentation for Intel.
The Intel Challenge is: They have the capability to develop the most advanced processes. Do they have the capability to do it cost effectively and support external customers. we shall see.
I am...
If you want a really accurate number for tool shipments, Most sell side analysts have a tracker that looks at shipments by locations. They can track how much revenue went from Netherlands to Taiwan and in the US it is separated by state. In China it is separated by province. when I checked this...
AI is like if a really hard working person with no knowledge or intelligence summarized google searches. In some cases, it now references Facebook. In order to make it useful, one needs to apply expertise.
Some High level statements
1) Intel was a leader in EUV development. They got early...
