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to understand the long term impact, I think we need to understand two things
1) Where is it working today well? Give examples. is it eliminating jobs? is it changing how jobs are done? is it creating new jobs
Coding, Quick summaries of Internet information, quick help on basic information on...
exactly. Most of the time it is based on control .... but I worked with a company where the customer owned the WIP in the factory (not a fab). you could pay a higher price and the manufacturing company would own it. essentially consigment.
I wont get into the details on airflow designs. but he is kinda correct. today Wafers are not often exposed to the bay environment. Even when they were, I was in a fab 20 years ago where we tested airflow and the flow made it impossible for someone to hit a wafer with particles from their mouth...
That is possible and we can never know specifics of those kind of challenges. However. If the decision was based on loadings and Arrow lake.... when was the decision made? Did Intel have a two versions of the 12X tile (one TSMC one Intel 3)??
Things like this may have happened and led to the...
I plugged in your Wildcat lake numbers to my cost model. Still playing with the specifics but the cost estimate is ~50% of lowest Panther lake sku and should be reasonable replacement of Alder Lake and Raptor lake skus..... assuming 18A wafer cost to product group is "market price" .... IFS...
Its just end of year and it is LBTs first chance to make major financial changes. I dont know what they will announce. There are some product roadmap changes and those are leaking out slowly over time.
On Margins... IN THEORY, wafer cost and development/ramp cost impact should hit IFS (they...
@XtorTourist
Good input. So since this came up, when does TSMC revenue get recognized? I assume when product is shipped outside the company to another company. TSMC owns the goods until shipped correct?
I have a model for the goal and I have a model for how things are actually going on outs per tool and total volume in Oregon and in Arizona. I will wait for Intel announcements at earnings before I publish results.
Some things we know from publc comments:
1) 18A volume is low, full ramp of Fab...
We have a model with scenarios for the cost of Panther Lake ... and depending on yield scenario, 18A is dominant in the cost (reminder the wafer cost is still VERY high compared to goal). It will be margin headwind throughout 2026 using GAAP accounting. I expect some one time writeoffs due to...
Just checking here:
The GPU "chip" hopper is made by TSMC fab . it is a single die made in 4nm (yes there can be two dies if desired)
It is attached to a interposer with HBM "chips" which come in a 12 die+controller in a package. The GPU and 6-8 of these HBM "Chips" are placed on an interposer...
Intel started production of 18A in April (assumed in D1). Intel started production wafers in Arizona in summer. Not sure where all these wafers went as there has been no launch and no products can be purchased by consumers . We expect launch (end product announcement) at CES next week, 9...
Also I would be careful about using Public relations issues to judge a CPU.
I remember when a very well publicized bug freaked everyone out in the press, I told a friend "that is not even listed in top 10 scariest bugs we have on CPUs currently in production".
To me the worst products were...
I am surprised all this happened but going forward:
Taiwan and TSMC want to punish him for being disloyal. Nothing to do with Intel
I am shocked Intel would hire him (other than as a consultant).... legal can refuse to hire someone or even fire someone for being a potential IP liability.
Next...
Itanium was a family that lasted for several years. all part of the "Intel needs to change x86 architecture", "Intel needs 64bit."
it was also a tight partnership with HP... Hundreds were sold over the course of 5-10 years
i860 was even worse. [correction]
All pentium 4 were suspect. It loved...
US trade policy is forcing China to become dominant in Semi equipment. Personally I would rather have AMAT, LAM make the money, but I am a crazy free trader and don't beleive every country can successfully have its own self contained ecosystem.
On the India comments: India and China are VERY...
Is this for US tool company shipments (LAM/AMAT)?
Or does the US department of commerce control Korean companies shipping Japanese and Dutch equipment to China somehow?
