You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
Couple items:
the 2nd largest foundry commitment in 2030 was made for external foundry. they said they would be number 2 overall including internal earlier (the date is now in the past)
Today, Intel is not a top external fab foundry or OSAT for other companies. they are very small in both. In...
thats the way all these things work. Lots of hype, some applications scream about it. lots of PR disasters. 10% failure rate under test does not mean 10% return rate or anything close to that
the actual impact on any returns and any OEMs actually changing buying strategy is not material or a...
I have seen estimates on this, I didn't think it was material and OEMs didnt seem concerned.
how many units do you think are being replaced per quarter. ... what is a decent amount.
I think @dkr1986 hit on some things and Aaron Rakers published a summary. DC demand grew a lot in the 2H2025 and I guess it was a surprise. Aarons take is that YoY growth went from like 2% to 15%. Then there are some pricing changes
My concerns are:
Intel should have capacity for everything...
18A does not have a better margins today or throughout most of 2026. Margins go down the more 18A ramps. Margins on 18A are negative today, and much worse than other nodes throughout most of 2026. In theory, if they get the outs per tool, to goal get yields on target, and fully ramp 2 fabs...
10K has some good info on Capex at Fab 52/62 and the exact amount Intel spent. The partner has a say in whether to ramp or not on that as well. Intel pays fees if underloaded or if they hold inventory.
Which brings us back to the 2020 Corporate Strategic Discussions. Would the Intel BUs rather...
Good input on Intel 7. so what is Fab 42 doing?
18A loses money if you don't ramp it and loses even more if you do ramp it. It is a very cool technology with a high wafer cost and low yields. There is no answer to this paradox which is why successul companies outsource to TSMC.
CWF will take...
Lets say that OpenAI States that they do not see a time where they can make money and Investors state that spending needs to be flat until they can (Both seem like reasonable possibilities).
What would happen?
this was a very long winded response to 2 simple questions
1) How much revenue do you need from external to claim some success (no answer)
2) when will you have that revenue. (2028 it starts}. reminder, Intel claimed risk production in April on Panther lake. Revenue started 9 months later.
The...
Intel is constrained while shrinking.... let that set in. and he said its not related to DRAM
SIde note: according to Intel, 10% of Intel output is EUV. 10%. My pessimistic model was 17%. apparently Ireland is not fully tooled out. Fab 52 is not fully tooled out.
Intel said they 18A and...
How does intel shrink, get constrained, and lower product margins in this environment?
IMO not a good con call for LBT. Bad news, no positive numbers, cheerleader comments, Panther lake hurting margins.
Lets see the 10K
Actually Intel EPS is negative. It is only positive if we use Generally unaccepted accounting principles. P/E is infinite.
At least Intel IFS external sales went up ... because Altera is now considered an external customer LOL.
I know Samsung is cutting deals to get customers. I am wondering if Intel will as well. and then whether customers will look to have multiple sources.
Once metric to look at: Over the next couple years does the increase in dollar external wafer foundry revenue grow faster at Samsung or Intel...
Intel is not integrating DRAM on future chips and TSMC isnt part of this discussion IMO. the question is whether ODMs would like Lunar Lake with integrated DRAM or Panther Lake without it. I am not sure how this turns out.
Whether Intel can be profitable on 18A or panther lake remains to be...
Fab 52, 62, both Ohio Fabs were meant for 18A. Then everything changed. Lets see what Intel says publicly.... then we can speculate.
And again: Intels challenge in foundry is not technical capability to develope a leading edge process. It is whether they can do it cost effectively. This is...
I agree on the other timeline comments 100%... that my point
I dont think that having american company build in america with government ownership is necessarily a great deal unless everything else is equal. I think that the best product at the best price from the best company is more important...
Before Ohio is running, doesnt Fab 62 need to come up?
Seems like the Jobs are consistent with what has been happening for last year. There are people there doing work aligned to a 2030 start up. there are 8 jobs posted. help me with what has changed (Maybe LBT will tell us).
Lets look at...
I am doing a report on these shortages.... trying to get the numbers to make sense... please chime in to correct me.
1) If you are choosing a wafer foundy for a design, it is 2-3 years minimum from this decision to actually needing volume. So if I have a design, and I decide to do it at Samsung...
