Intel has limited customer commitments for latest chip manufacturing tech, CFO say

[Xebec]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1924586152570519563

I've been involved in plenty of large corporate buys and negotiation for multiyear contracts (=>50K/year PCs). Most likely the large companies would seed a few of these Snapdragon laptops for internal evaluation, but at the price premium they're charging.. They're still DOA. Corporate security would also question the architecture, drivers, etc. for use in some companies (Also "are they TAA compliant", etc).

For a majority of corporate employees - the LNL will be cheaper and more reliable. At the premium price of Snapdragon - many users would prefer (and be better served) by a Macbook anyway.

 

[DougDD]

A number of Intel execs have distanced themselves from Pat's style. I do think that Gelsinger put pressure on people to go his way as he is CEO. I think Lip-Bu is much more his speed. However, "Pat says a lot of things" is very much not Zinsner's style. Where/when did he say this?

Zinsner definitely said that - I remember that because I was surprised that he said that as well.
I agree that it's probably not Zinsner's style. But, when you think about it, these executives are
human and they could be having a rough day / rough months and just blurt something like that
out due to frustration - don't forget it's not hard to undo your internal control mechanism for a
brief moment when you do conference calls all the time. As to when it was, I have to go from memory.
I'm thinking last summer to early fall timeframe - you'd have to go through the archives on INTC's
website - Zinsner did a between earnings CC solo.

I just did a quick check - it could have been Deutch Bank in late August - but the audio is no longer
available. Don't forget, the frustration from Zinsner then must have been significant due to their
tanking stock price and the press writing negative articles:

https://www.intc.com/news-events/ir...829-deutsche-banks-2024-technology-conference

Actually, just dug a little more - it could have been Citi because Zinsner was solo. That audio is available -
if that's the one, I'll pat myself on the back for recollection timeframes:

https://kvgo.com/citi-2024-global-tmt-conference/intel-corporation-sep-2024

Intel Corporation to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences​

Download as PDFAug 13, 2024 • 4:30 PM EDT

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intel Corporation today announced that company executives will participate in the following investor events:

• On Aug. 29 at 8 a.m. PDT, Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, will participate in a fireside chat on Intel’s business and corporate strategy at Deutsche Bank's 2024 Technology Conference.
• 
  
• On Sept. 4 at 11:10 a.m. PDT, David Zinsner, executive vice president and chief financial officer, will participate in a fireside chat on Intel’s business and financial strategy at the Citi Global Technology Conference.

 

[MKWVentures]

Zinsner definitely said that - I remember that because I was surprised that he said that as well.
I agree that it's probably not Zinsner's style. But, when you think about it, these executives are
human and they could be having a rough day / rough months and just blurt something like that
out due to frustration - don't forget it's not hard to undo your internal control mechanism for a
brief moment when you do conference calls all the time. As to when it was, I have to go from memory.
I'm thinking last summer to early fall timeframe - you'd have to go through the archives on INTC's
website - Zinsner did a between earnings CC solo.

I just did a quick check - it could have been Deutch Bank in late August - but the audio is no longer
available. Don't forget, the frustration from Zinsner then must have been significant due to their
tanking stock price and the press writing negative articles:

https://www.intc.com/news-events/ir...829-deutsche-banks-2024-technology-conference

Actually, just dug a little more - it could have been Citi because Zinsner was solo. That audio is available -
if that's the one, I'll pat myself on the back for recollection timeframes:

https://kvgo.com/citi-2024-global-tmt-conference/intel-corporation-sep-2024

Intel Corporation to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences​

Download as PDFAug 13, 2024 • 4:30 PM EDT

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intel Corporation today announced that company executives will participate in the following investor events:

• On Aug. 29 at 8 a.m. PDT, Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, will participate in a fireside chat on Intel’s business and corporate strategy at Deutsche Bank's 2024 Technology Conference.
• 
  
• On Sept. 4 at 11:10 a.m. PDT, David Zinsner, executive vice president and chief financial officer, will participate in a fireside chat on Intel’s business and financial strategy at the Citi Global Technology Conference.

I recommend reviewing the Intel website presentations from 2021 and 2022 to know what was promised and how we got here. I also published blogs at the time on what would actually happen to Intel vs what was promised.

 

[XYang2023]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1924586152570519563

https://twitter.com/x/status/1925135793762496626

 

[DougDD]

I recommend reviewing the Intel website presentations from 2021 and 2022 to know what was promised and how we got here. I also published blogs at the time on what would actually happen to Intel vs what was promised.

Like many others, I understand that Intel overpromised and underlivered. But, let's be fair, some of that
hype was real because it was from advanced packaging. But I don't care about that right now because
it's water under the bridge and it's in the stock price. What I care about is there's a new CEO and INTC's
current valuation relative to their future potential. The foundry market is projected to double from about
$100 billion right now to ~ $200 billion by 2032 or so. At Intel's Direct Connect, Cadence's CEO (Devgan)
even said that it can be a lot higher than that in about 10 years - I think I even heard him say $400 billion
but it's hard to decipher exactly what he said in front of Lip-Bu. What I do know is that he didn't say $200
billion because it sounded more like $400. That growth has been projected to largely come from EUV and
maybe even High NA EUV more so than the lower process technology.

So, what I care about is Lip-Bu and his team overdelivering on their potential to get a good piece of that huge
market where customers need alternatives to TSMC.

PS: I looks like Cadence's Devgan is on the same page as Eric Schmidt who thinks that the AI revolution is
underhyped:

 

[DougDD]

Like many others, I understand that Intel overpromised and underlivered. But, let's be fair, some of that
hype was real because it was from advanced packaging. But I don't care about that right now because
it's water under the bridge and it's in the stock price. What I care about is there's a new CEO and INTC's
current valuation relative to their future potential. The foundry market is projected to double from about
$100 billion right now to ~ $200 billion by 2032 or so. At Intel's Direct Connect, Cadence's CEO (Devgan)
even said that it can be a lot higher than that in about 10 years - I think I even heard him say $400 billion
but it's hard to decipher exactly what he said in front of Lip-Bu. What I do know is that he didn't say $200
billion because it sounded more like $400. That growth has been projected to largely come from EUV and
maybe even High NA EUV more so than the lower process technology.

So, what I care about is Lip-Bu and his team overdelivering on their potential to get a good piece of that huge
market where customers need alternatives to TSMC.

PS: I looks like Cadence's Devgan is on the same page as Eric Schmidt who thinks that the AI revolution is
underhyped:

Here's Cadence's Devgan on the prospective size of the foundry market by 2035:

 

[Artificer60]

So, what I care about is Lip-Bu and his team overdelivering on their potential to get a good piece of that huge
market where customers need alternatives to TSMC.

I have no issues with the claims that Li-bu Tan will under promise and over deliver. Next quarter's financials coming in July will probably be our first chance to see if he delivers on that.

My bigger question is what has Lip-bu Tan actually promised? I've heard him say Intel will win your trust. I've heard him say Intel will listen. None of these sound like concrete claims I can measure success against. He said he would flatten the management structure and he has done that at the executive level, but there is a lot of managerial overhead yet to address and no plan or timeline given. The next closest thing I have heard is that Intel will begin to deliver on their promises on time. That is measurable, but when should we expect that to happen. While I'm still hopeful that Lip-bu Tan can make a difference, I'm also waiting for him to give me a well defined point I can use to measure progress.

Then again maybe my expectations are too high given he has only been in the job for two months.

 

[siliconbruh999]

I have no issues with the claims that Li-bu Tan will under promise and over deliver. Next quarter's financials coming in July will probably be our first chance to see if he delivers on that.

My bigger question is what has Lip-bu Tan actually promised? I've heard him say Intel will win your trust. I've heard him say Intel will listen. None of these sound like concrete claims I can measure success against. He said he would flatten the management structure and he has done that at the executive level, but there is a lot of managerial overhead yet to address and no plan or timeline given. The next closest thing I have heard is that Intel will begin to deliver on their promises on time. That is measurable, but when should we expect that to happen. While I'm still hopeful that Lip-bu Tan can make a difference, I'm also waiting for him to give me a well defined point I can use to measure progress.

Then again maybe my expectations are too high given he has only been in the job for two months.

At least wait couple of year most of the product pipeline for 3 years has been set in motion by Pat but there is always tweaking and optimization possible.

 

[XtorTourist]

Zinsner definitely said that - I remember that because I was surprised that he said that as well.
I agree that it's probably not Zinsner's style. But, when you think about it, these executives are
human and they could be having a rough day / rough months and just blurt something like that
out due to frustration - don't forget it's not hard to undo your internal control mechanism for a
brief moment when you do conference calls all the time. As to when it was, I have to go from memory.
I'm thinking last summer to early fall timeframe - you'd have to go through the archives on INTC's
website - Zinsner did a between earnings CC solo.

I just did a quick check - it could have been Deutch Bank in late August - but the audio is no longer
available. Don't forget, the frustration from Zinsner then must have been significant due to their
tanking stock price and the press writing negative articles:

https://www.intc.com/news-events/ir...829-deutsche-banks-2024-technology-conference

Actually, just dug a little more - it could have been Citi because Zinsner was solo. That audio is available -
if that's the one, I'll pat myself on the back for recollection timeframes:

https://kvgo.com/citi-2024-global-tmt-conference/intel-corporation-sep-2024

Zinsner would not do an earnings call solo pre or post Pat. None of these are earnings calls. In these conference interviews, Zinsner admits Intel optimistic forecasting, of which he was part of, but that's talking about Intel as a whole.

 

[DougDD]

Zinsner would not do an earnings call solo pre or post Pat. None of these are earnings calls. In these conference interviews, Zinsner admits Intel optimistic forecasting, of which he was part of, but that's talking about Intel as a whole.

Who said that Zinsner was doing an earnings conference call solo?

I said that he did a "between earnings conference call solo."

There's a big difference because investor conference calls happen
several times per quarter between earnings - we all know that -
at least we should.

 

[XtorTourist]

Who said that Zinsner was doing an earnings conference call solo?

I said that he did a "between earnings conference call solo."

Sorry, I misread that piece. But where did Zinsner "definitely" say this stuff because it's very odd for standing CFOs to talk about their CEOs (even a past one) in this fashion.

 

[DougDD]

Sorry, I misread that piece. But where did Zinsner "definitely" say this stuff because it's very odd for standing CFOs to talk about their CEOs (even a past one) in this fashion.

I already did my best to answer that question - I'm too busy to rehash what I said - just go
back a few of my posts on this thread. He definitely said "Pat says a lot of things" - I have too many
shares of the stock to get something like that wrong - I remember it clearly. But exactly what call
it was from - that's not easy to specify with certainty, I already did my best to answer that question.

PS: I think that it was Citi in early Sept - I emphasize think.

 

[XtorTourist]

I already did my best to answer that question - I'm too busy to rehash what I said - just go
back a few of my posts on this thread. He definitely said "Pat says a lot of things" - I have too many
shares of the stock to get something like that wrong - I remember it clearly. But exactly what call
it was from - that's not easy to specify with certainty, I already did my best to answer that question.

PS: I think that it was Citi in early Sept - I emphasize think.

That's fine. This isn't CFOwiki.com, and I don't want to hijack the thread more.

 

[kevin01]

I already did my best to answer that question - I'm too busy to rehash what I said - just go
back a few of my posts on this thread. He definitely said "Pat says a lot of things" - I have too many
shares of the stock to get something like that wrong - I remember it clearly. But exactly what call
it was from - that's not easy to specify with certainty, I already did my best to answer that question.

PS: I think that it was Citi in early Sept - I emphasize think.

i remember he said that as well.