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I don't think there is a fallout for the usual schedule if 20A products are available in January for non-k sku it is their regular cadence so I think it will be a pass but if it's Feb yeah not good I am more interested in comparing 6+8 Intel 20A die vs 6+8 N3B die it will also give a hint of the PPA for the nodes
I am not sure Intel knows what will launch and when on Arrow lake yet.... data is still coming in from multiple sku options . So we will need to wait to see what happens....
I am not sure Intel knows what will launch and when on Arrow lake yet.... data is still coming in from multiple sku options . So we will need to wait to see what happens....
What’s your take on the cost to produce Arrow Lake on TSMC N3 or Intel 20A vs Raptor Lake on Intel 7?
I suspect some of the math games involve costing out these options and determining vs. availability which to produce over the next 6-12 months. (i.e. 14th gen isn’t unsellable just because Ryzen 9000 launches. )
What’s your take on the cost to produce Arrow Lake on TSMC N3 or Intel 20A vs Raptor Lake on Intel 7?
I suspect some of the math games involve costing out these options and determining vs. availability which to produce over the next 6-12 months. (i.e. 14th gen isn’t unsellable just because Ryzen 9000 launches.
My model on cost is that Arrow lake will be more expensive than Raptor lake with either tech. 20A will be more expensive than N3. While Intel 7 may not be cost effective, Arrow lake is very complex packaging and multiple chiplets. Also 20A/18A may someday be cost effective, it is not currently due to low volume and lack of maturity and yields ..... it is 2 years from having a HVM fab fully ramped and mature yields. Reminder, Arrow lake is mostly TSMC or Totally TSMC depending on the CPU choice.
My Model for Intels inefficiency is not related to EUV, it is related to low volume/output per tool and manufacturing model not being focused on cost in the past. It will take 2 more years at least to make a major improvement on this IMO
My understanding on why Intel chose (apparently) N3 Option over the 20A is the health of 20A (I don't have exact details on 20A health issues). Arrow lake refresh plans to use more 20A. But again the data is still coming in and decisions may change again in Q4 based on 20A health .... we will update the cost and ramp model by then
My model on cost is that Arrow lake will be more expensive than Raptor lake with either tech. 20A will be more expensive than N3. While Intel 7 may not be cost effective, Arrow lake is very complex packaging and multiple chiplets. Also 20A/18A may someday be cost effective, it is not currently due to low volume and lack of maturity and yields ..... it is 2 years from having a HVM fab fully ramped and mature yields. Reminder, Arrow lake is mostly TSMC or Totally TSMC depending on the CPU choice.
My Model for Intels inefficiency is not related to EUV, it is related to low volume/output per tool and manufacturing model not being focused on cost in the past. It will take 2 more years at least to make a major improvement on this IMO
My understanding on why Intel chose (apparently) N3 Option over the 20A is the health of 20A (I don't have exact details on 20A health issues). Arrow lake refresh plans to use more 20A. But again the data is still coming in and decisions may change again in Q4 based on 20A health .... we will update the cost and ramp model by then
I don't have details .... health could be anything. Yields are normally the best metric. I don't think anyone knows for sure about what the health of 20A and 18A will be next spring.
We will know more when the Arrow lake SKUs role out.
Intel said 20A manufacturing ready in H1 24 which has passed maybe the Product team has not finalized the design of ARL so they can't ramp it up on time cause they don't have any wafers to run according to someone on twitter they are still on ES2 not QS
Intel said 20A manufacturing ready in H1 24 which has passed maybe the Product team has not finalized the design of ARL so they can't ramp it up on time cause they don't have any wafers to run according to someone on twitter they are still on ES2 not QS
Could be. Did Intel ever announce that 20A was manufacturing ready and that the goal had been achieved? Its a meaningless achievement since the criteria can be tweaked.... but it would be insightful (and legally interesting) to know whether they actually stated it was manufacturing ready. Again, Intel is not clear on what SKUs will be.... so we cannot know more than Intel. We will know in Q4 as I believe Intel will make announcements and the customer presentation slides will leak out by then.
Could be. Did Intel ever announce that 20A was manufacturing ready and that the goal had been achieved? Its a meaningless achievement since the criteria can be tweaked.... but it would be insightful (and legally interesting) to know whether they actually stated it was manufacturing ready. Again, Intel is not clear on what SKUs will be.... so we cannot know more than Intel. We will know in Q4 as I believe Intel will make announcements and the customer presentation slides will leak out by then.
