TSM conflict, Man's Greatest Opportunity or Downfall

[Arthur Hanson]

The TSM/Tech conflict between mainly the US and China presents the greatest opportunity for mankind for progress or to destroy itself as we know it. Whether we like it or not China and the west are linked tightly whether they like it or not. A major conflict will destroy the world economy in ways we can't even imagine. India also comes into play in this equation. If the East and West could come together it would be far more profitable and of benefit to everyone over a war that will devastate the world economy for everyone. Sadly, the three major powers have the worst leaders in history for they don't see the opportunities right in front of their eyes. Morris Chang is a true genius in not only technology, but business by creating the best foundry of any type in business and the key company to the technology revolution before us. TSM helped more companies create more wealth and wellbeing than any company in history. This model/ecosystem if destroyed will wreak havoc on not only the world economy, but the well being of everyone. The investments in military have been among the worst investments ever made as the US has learned from Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq, with huge downside and little return. China's return on its military investments have been just as bad and threaten to become far worse, with little or no upside.

The Taiwan business conflicts present one of the largest opportunities for mankind to advance and improve the state of the world. An east/west conflict will be disaster for all with implications for every country in the world. This is an opportunity for leaders to show they a people of wisdom or just plain thugs with power. Morris Chang has set a standard that world leaders should strive to follow for he has done more for the progress of just about everything from applied science to improving all types of communications that set the stage for collaborative opportunities of untold progress that mankind, if really intelligent to harvest. Now is the time for political and business leaders to take a firm stand to decide that collaboration and cooperation are the only intelligent choice to face the many challenges before us. The alternative will be hell and destruction for all for our planet and its environment is at a turning point and the decision between social/ business prosperity and the possibility of extinction is now ours to make. Man now has the power to literally destroy ourselves or prosper. I hope our leaders can follow the wisdom of Morris Chang over madmen.

This is definitely a rough draft and I would have liked to and will polish it more, but there is literally no time to waste for the situations around the world are degenerating fast.

 

[ta152h]

The TSM/Tech conflict between mainly the US and China presents the greatest opportunity for mankind for progress or to destroy itself as we know it. Whether we like it or not China and the west are linked tightly whether they like it or not. A major conflict will destroy the world economy in ways we can't even imagine. India also comes into play in this equation. If the East and West could come together it would be far more profitable and of benefit to everyone over a war that will devastate the world economy for everyone. Sadly, the three major powers have the worst leaders in history for they don't see the opportunities right in front of their eyes. Morris Chang is a true genius in not only technology, but business by creating the best foundry of any type in business and the key company to the technology revolution before us. TSM helped more companies create more wealth and wellbeing than any company in history. This model/ecosystem if destroyed will wreak havoc on not only the world economy, but the well being of everyone. The investments in military have been among the worst investments ever made as the US has learned from Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq, with huge downside and little return. China's return on its military investments have been just as bad and threaten to become far worse, with little or no upside.

The Taiwan business conflicts present one of the largest opportunities for mankind to advance and improve the state of the world. An east/west conflict will be disaster for all with implications for every country in the world. This is an opportunity for leaders to show they a people of wisdom or just plain thugs with power. Morris Chang has set a standard that world leaders should strive to follow for he has done more for the progress of just about everything from applied science to improving all types of communications that set the stage for collaborative opportunities of untold progress that mankind, if really intelligent to harvest. Now is the time for political and business leaders to take a firm stand to decide that collaboration and cooperation are the only intelligent choice to face the many challenges before us. The alternative will be hell and destruction for all for our planet and its environment is at a turning point and the decision between social/ business prosperity and the possibility of extinction is now ours to make. Man now has the power to literally destroy ourselves or prosper. I hope our leaders can follow the wisdom of Morris Chang over madmen.

This is definitely a rough draft and I would have liked to and will polish it more, but there is literally no time to waste for the situations around the world are degenerating fast.

You can't be friends with another country that is stealing from you, threatening all their neighbors, and intent on gaining dominance with or without military activity. No country is perfect, but China is a danger on many levels, and is intent on furthering their goals, often at the expense of other countries, including ours.

The most provocative thing you can do, is to be weak. This is what spurs China on. This is why Russia attacked Ukraine, they did not expect a strong response from Ukraine, or the other western countries.

TSMC isn't nearly as important as you indicate. I could just as easily have said, possibly moreso, that those other countries made TSMC. Nobody buys a process, or even cares, they buy an iPhone. Not because it's the fastest, or greatest, but because of other qualities they like about it. If it were not for TSMC, other companies would have taken its place. And some companies like Global Foundries might still be going after leading nodes.

Not that TSMC isn't a very good company, only that no one company ever has that much importance, and there's always another willing to fill that spot in the food chain. Would anyone even notice if there were no TSMC? I mean, if it never existed, we'd maybe be a couple years behind on what fabs were making, and that's being generous. But, it would just seem normal.

More important companies like Intel would not even matter much. I mean, I could say without Intel their PC revolution wouldn't have started, and their fabrication leadership for decades set the stage for the world today. But, if it were not for Intel, there would be another company that IBM selected a product from, and other companies would have filled the need. But, if not for IBM, and their research both before and after microprocessors, would the world be the same as it is today. Would RISC exist? SQL be predominant? Would banks be as accurate as they are without mainframes? You get the point. Yes, maybe we'd lose a little time, but another company would fill the void, and have created similar inventions, although I'd have to believe IBM is historically the most important company, or close to it, in terms of shaping innovation and computer technology.

TSMC? It's a great fab. But, it's not the holy grail of humanity. It's not even close. Just as they say, the graveyards are filled with irreplaceable people, it's important to note that the same could be said of other companies. These important companies existing is what also prevented other companies from filling that role. And they would have, although with minor alterations.

I don't mean to sound so down on TSMC, it's not that I don't respect them. It's just a matter of perspective. Almost all inventions have a parallel to someone else that was working on the same thing. Even the Theory of Relativity. That's all I mean. It's not anti-TSMC.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

The foundry model is what makes TSM great. It allows companies to produce products they could never do themselves, not a walled garden like Intel/IBM for years. The TSM/Apple collaboration is one of the greatest in history and while others are laying off, Apple has one of the highest revenues per employee of any non-resource company in the world at 2.4 million per employee. TSM has a revenue per employee of over 17 million. Both these companies have collaboration as a key trait and if the world could follow their example of collaboration the world could be a better place. It is the collaboration model that is critical and neither IBM or Intel had it.

 

[Blue Devil]

Driven by current CCP leadership, military conflict between the US+allies and China in and around Taiwan will be devastating for the world economy for at least 2-3 years. This will be followed by a massive realignment of global economic priorities favoring the US and our allies, led by technology leadership present in all major industries, including energy. This post-war period could be the most prosperous time in US history.

 

[cliff]

Peace is an AND function. War is an OR function.

 

[ta152h]

The foundry model is what makes TSM great. It allows companies to produce products they could never do themselves, not a walled garden like Intel/IBM for years. The TSM/Apple collaboration is one of the greatest in history and while others are laying off, Apple has one of the highest revenues per employee of any non-resource company in the world at 2.4 million per employee. TSM has a revenue per employee of over 17 million. Both these companies have collaboration as a key trait and if the world could follow their example of collaboration the world could be a better place. It is the collaboration model that is critical and neither IBM or Intel had it.

TSMC is hardly the only foundry, and in reality, Intel has almost always been about collaboration. IBM less so, but then again, look at all their inventions.

Intel doesn't sell processors for you to use, they collaborate in a much more meaningful way than TSMC ever has. They sell you a made part, and others if you want like chipset, so you can make a computer. TSMC sells something a little further upstream, requiring more work. Intel even sets standards for other companies to follow if they wish.

Clearly very collaborative.

But, in any case, you can't make someone work with you if they won't. You can't just say, you win, when it's detrimental to yourself and China. We can't make China our friends, they have to decide it's in their best interest too. Being nice to them hasn't worked. That's not their way. Letting them know there are consequences if they don't, has a much better chance. Pacifism never has a strong end result. At best, it buys you time, at worst, it starts avoidable conflicts.

There's an old saying "Know what it is to be my enemy before you know what it is to be my friend". There's some wisdom in that.