Can China Build a Self-Sufficient Semiconductor Equipment Supply Chain Without ASML?

[AVAQ Semiconductor]

According to recent industry reports from Nikkei and Newswitch, ASML's share of sales in China has continued to decline, while Chinese semiconductor equipment companies are rapidly expanding their capabilities.


Some notable developments include:

• SMEE reportedly validating 28nm ArF immersion lithography tools
• NAURA mass-producing equipment for 28nm processes
• AMEC validating tools for 14nm production at SMIC
• Huawei reportedly supporting domestic equipment development through engineering collaboration

While China still faces significant challenges in advanced lithography, it seems to be making progress across several other process steps.

This raises an interesting question:

Can China achieve a largely self-sufficient semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem without access to the latest EUV tools from ASML?

Will mature-node manufacturing (28nm, 14nm, and above) be enough to support most domestic demand, or will advanced-node dependence remain a major bottleneck?

I'd love to hear perspectives from process engineers, equipment vendors, and semiconductor investors.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

China can build a self-sufficient equipment ecosystem for 28nm and above, and gradually into selective 14/7/5nm production with compromises. But replacing ASML for economical 5nm/3nm-class high-volume manufacturing is a 2030s problem, not a near-term certainly. Just my opinion of course.

 

[DanX]

Yes, of course.
Westerners lack a fundamental grasp of national will. Russia could sustain warfare for another four
years, and North Korea can maintain its system for three more generations.
At what cost?
At any cost — as long as the rulers are not the cost.

 

[Paul2]

Yes, of course.
Westerners lack a fundamental grasp of national will. Russia could sustain warfare for another four
years, and North Korea can maintain its system for three more generations.
At what cost?
At any cost — as long as the rulers are not the cost.

Correct

 

[benb]

I believe EUV technology diffusion in China can be modeled based on an epidemiological curve. In other words, if you assume the first infection has occurred (as Howard Lutnick proposes) and the R (infectiousness) is large, diffusion will be fast.

What fast diffusion in this context means is 2030s, as Daniel proposes.