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Intel's Mobileye Plans to Offer 41 Million Shares in IPO at $18-$21 Each

hist78

hist78

Well-known member
This new $15 billion valuation is much smaller than the original $40 to $50 billion estimate.

"Intel Corp.'s self-driving-car unit, Mobileye Global Inc., expects a market valuation of roughly $15 billion at the projected pricing midpoint of its initial public offering."

www.marketwatch.com

Intel's Mobileye Plans to Offer 41 Mln Shares in IPO at $18-$21 Each

By Robb M. Stewart Intel Corp.'s self-driving-car unit, Mobileye Global Inc., expects a market valuation of roughly $15 billion at the projected pricing...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
hist78 said:
This new $15 billion valuation is much smaller than the original $40 to $50 billion estimate.

"Intel Corp.'s self-driving-car unit, Mobileye Global Inc., expects a market valuation of roughly $15 billion at the projected pricing midpoint of its initial public offering."

www.marketwatch.com

Intel's Mobileye Plans to Offer 41 Mln Shares in IPO at $18-$21 Each

By Robb M. Stewart Intel Corp.'s self-driving-car unit, Mobileye Global Inc., expects a market valuation of roughly $15 billion at the projected pricing...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
Click to expand...
This definitely isn't the market intel would like this to happen in and intel is more desperate for the money than they would have liked
 
count said:
That's roughly what Intel paid for Mobileye 5 years ago, and a huge cut from the initial $50b Intel was looking for.
Click to expand...
I read (I can't remember where) that Intel is probably pricing the IPO at a bargain level so investors bid the share price up, and the market would determine the real price. I suspect Intel might like this strategy because they're holding on to a controlling number of shares. This might mean there's not consensus among Intel's board and the advisors it's using from investment banks on what the IPO price should be.
 
blueone said:
I read (I can't remember where) that Intel is probably pricing the IPO at a bargain level so investors bid the share price up, and the market would determine the real price. I suspect Intel might like this strategy because they're holding on to a controlling number of shares. This might mean there's not consensus among Intel's board and the advisors it's using from investment banks on what the IPO price should be.
Click to expand...

This is a half-hearted IPO with Intel controlling 99% of the voting power after the IPO. It's like the public are invited to buy tickets for a New Year party but they need to wait by the curbside for a chance to get into the party.

"Intel will retain a large stake in Mobileye, including all of the class B shares Mobileye plans to issue, with each B share having voting rights equivalent to 10 A shares. Immediately following the completion of the offering, Intel's hold on the B shares is expected to represent a little over 99% of the voting power, according to the prospectus."
 
hist78 said:
This is a half-hearted IPO with Intel controlling 99% of the voting power after the IPO. It's like the public are invited to buy tickets for a New Year party but they need to wait by the curbside for a chance to get into the party.

"Intel will retain a large stake in Mobileye, including all of the class B shares Mobileye plans to issue, with each B share having voting rights equivalent to 10 A shares. Immediately following the completion of the offering, Intel's hold on the B shares is expected to represent a little over 99% of the voting power, according to the prospectus."
Click to expand...
I agree, but look at where the former CEO of VMware gets his ideas from...
 
Its hovering in the $28 to $29 range as of now. Considering the macro situation, if Mobileye had IPOed near the peak of the market it would potentially have a similar or lower valuation than now considering the hypergrowth stocks have been hammered to the tune of 80-90%. Of course this doesn't consider that Intel only sold 5% of the shares whereas selling 59% at the peak would have raised 25 billion
 
Mobileye is trading at a $23b valuation. I suspected it would ultimately be around a $20b valuation, but there is a pretty high bar for growth even at this current valuation. Time will tell.
 
count said:
Mobileye is trading at a $23b valuation. I suspected it would ultimately be around a $20b valuation, but there is a pretty high bar for growth even at this current valuation. Time will tell.
Click to expand...
This leads to a growth rate of 8.3% per year over the 5 years since intel has purchased MBLY. After adjusting for inflation intel's investment has grown 4%. Not the typical rate of return that silicon valley folks are probably used to, but there is a good chance this is better growth than intel can reasonably expect from it's normal safe investments given their status as a market leader with minimal opportunities for growth (although it is probably a good bit below their MARR which is likely higher to compensate for the uncertainty present with any investment).
 
Rokon Zaman said:
The future of the mobile eye depends on how fast autonomous vehicles leave death valley. It seems that subtle issues are yet to be detected and theorized-let alone automated them. I look forward to sharing views. https://www.the-waves.org/2020/07/31/autonomous-vehicles-in-death-valley/
Click to expand...
If Ford is to be believed, autonomous vehicles look a lot longer to develop than they thought. So much so they just booked a $2.7B loss on their Argo AI investment. Drove Ford from a profit last quarter to a loss. I agree with Ford. The way forward are driver assists.

 
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blueone said:
If Ford is to be believed, autonomous vehicles look a lot longer away than they thought. So much so they just booked a $2.7B loss on their Argo AI investment. Drove Ford from a profit last quarter to a loss. I agree with Ford. The way forward are driver assists.

Click to expand...
I suppose that is good for Mobileye investors since they are a leader in this segment. However does this really matter either way? Because even if you aren't using Mobileye's self driving models/software, won't customers continue to use more sensors and data processors from mobileye, and then feed them into X companies neural engine?
 
nghanayem said:
I suppose that is good for Mobileye investors since they are a leader in this segment. However does this really matter either way? Because even if you aren't using Mobileye's self driving models/software, won't customers continue to use more sensors and data processors from mobileye, and then feed them into X companies neural engine?
Click to expand...
My personal opinion on autonomous driving, for about the past seven years, has been that it is unlikely to become more than a very sophisticated driver assistance system for a long time. I had (and still have) the opinion that ADAS would win in the long run, and get more and more sophisticated over time. This made me very unpopular with some colleagues working on autonomous driving projects, to say the least. I was of the opinion that most people are such lousy drivers that ADAS, as it matures, would be a huge safety win, but humans would still need to drive.

The question is about Mobileye whether their ADAS technology is cost-effective enough to compete in anything except low-volume high-end luxury cars. I'm not sure; it looks like a derivative of autonomous driving technology, and it looks like a big integrated proprietary solution. That also fits in with a quote from their CEO on their website. I wonder... are vehicle manufacturers willing to design their control systems around one proprietary technology source like Mobileye, or will they demand more distributed systems with open and interoperable interfaces? Based on my experience with complex technologies for the datacenter industry, I have doubts about the long-term viability of integrated proprietary solutions.
 
blueone said:
My personal opinion on autonomous driving, for about the past seven years, has been that it is unlikely to become more than a very sophisticated driver assistance system for a long time. I had (and still have) the opinion that ADAS would win in the long run, and get more and more sophisticated over time. This made me very unpopular with some colleagues working on autonomous driving projects, to say the least. I was of the opinion that most people are such lousy drivers that ADAS, as it matures, would be a huge safety win, but humans would still need to drive.

The question is about Mobileye whether their ADAS technology is cost-effective enough to compete in anything except low-volume high-end luxury cars. I'm not sure; it looks like a derivative of autonomous driving technology, and it looks like a big integrated proprietary solution. That also fits in with a quote from their CEO on their website. I wonder... are vehicle manufacturers willing to design their control systems around one proprietary technology source like Mobileye, or will they demand more distributed systems with open and interoperable interfaces? Based on my experience with complex technologies for the datacenter industry, I have doubts about the long-term viability of integrated proprietary solutions.
Click to expand...
I thought mobileye was the largest producer of automatic emergency braking systems, and had contracts with almost every automotive company? If that isn't the case then I retract my statement.

Update:
en.wikipedia.org

Mobileye - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Their tech is in supercruise, older versions of autopilot, volvo/Geely, Fords, VW/Audi, BMW, Nissan, and apparently in 2021 Toyota selected them to dual source with a German company for Toyota's upcoming platforms.

As for the ADAS systems I wouldn't mind that. Autonomous for boring/easy highway driving that people often lose focus during and to help avoid/minimize an accident. If you could get it advanced enough it could probably solve like 90% of accidents that aren't DUIs.
 
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nghanayem said:
I thought mobileye was the largest producer of automatic emergency braking systems, and had contracts with almost every automotive company? If that isn't the case then I retract my statement.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen definitive marketshare information for the ADAS industry. See the companies profiled in this report:

www.futuremarketinsights.com

ADAS Market Size, Trends & Forecast 2025 to 2035

Explore how AI-driven ADAS technologies are transforming vehicle safety and automation.
www.futuremarketinsights.com www.futuremarketinsights.com

Mobileye is the only one I'm aware of that focuses on a vertical solution, so perhaps I was coloring the data with my doubts about that strategy.
 
blueone said:
I haven't seen definitive marketshare information for the ADAS industry. See the companies profiled in this report:

www.futuremarketinsights.com

ADAS Market Size, Trends & Forecast 2025 to 2035

Explore how AI-driven ADAS technologies are transforming vehicle safety and automation.
www.futuremarketinsights.com www.futuremarketinsights.com

Mobileye is the only one I'm aware of that focuses on a vertical solution, so perhaps I was coloring the data with my doubts about that strategy.
Click to expand...
My understanding is their ADAS systems are plug and play, but the vertical integration comes into play with their autonomous driving solutions where they are slapping together their sensors and signal processors with their software.
 
blueone said:
Mobileye apparently has some Tesla grit in their eye.

www.cnbc.com

Mobileye shares plunge after self-driving tech company cuts guidance amid Tesla's EV price war

Several Chinese EV makers are key early customers for Mobileye's newest and most advanced driver-assist system.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
I'd love to buy MBLY, but right now it's a little more than want to spend. But if it dips into the mid 20s, possibly high 20s, I'll jump. Or minimally, sell some puts on it, so I can get it even lower, or walk away with cash.
 
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