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The country that sets global standards profits the most as it sets the stage for payments from around the world to go to the leaders and the US has been the clear leader for decades in everything from software, hardware, communications, aircraft and numerous other areas. This has allowed the US and especially a full range of US tech sectors to prosper from payments and selling technology around the world. China now is doing everything possible to set the standards, but has to overcome the US having the incumbent position. As long as the US can maintain technological leadership we will continue to be in a position to set the standards. It will be interesting to see how TSM becoming the technological leader in semi fabrication influences the many standards involved from the technology, to EDA, to final products. This could be an important reason China wants the one China policy with Taiwan with their vibrant tech sector being one of the ultimate prizes. Any thoughts or comments on this solicited and appreciated.
$300B is a LOT of money! China still needs EDA and IP so I would expect some of that fund to start shopping at #55DAC next month!
And don't worry about TSMC. They are the only foundry building FinFETs in China. And they can flow as many wafers through their China fab as needed, absolutely.
I still expect double digit growth for TSMC this year, absolutely!
Dan, what excites me most is the Apple/TSM alliance which most, especially in the finance community are totally overlooking. I see TSM becoming a mems powerhouse with their older fabs being ideal for this. Mixing logic and mems with InFo packaging should be a large competitive advantage. This offers both companies a market so large they could both double in size, just from medical alone. Charlie Munger compared US medical to Singapore where he stated they only spend 20% of what the US does and gets better results. A horrible indictment of US medical.
Note, Charlie Munger sits on the board of a major hospital so should know.
If we look further into the spinoff of Toshiba memory business last year and other industry activities, a much bigger alliance is set in motion. The members of this alliance include Foxconn, TSMC, Apple, Google, Amazon, SoftBank, Cisco, Microsoft, DELL, Kingston Technology, and Sharp (owned by Foxconn). Possibly Oracle and Qualcomm are involved in it too. This A-Team has formidable power in finance, innovation, technology, IP, patents, marketing, manufacturing, and global supply chain operations.
This alliance's members may have conflicts in some business, but they do have a greater interest to collaborate in many other areas. The link between this diverse group is TSMC, Foxconn, SoftBank, and Apple.
Dan, what excites me most is the Apple/TSM alliance which most, especially in the finance community are totally overlooking. I see TSM becoming a mems powerhouse with their older fabs being ideal for this. Mixing logic and mems with InFo packaging should be a large competitive advantage. This offers both companies a market so large they could both double in size, just from medical alone. Charlie Munger compared US medical to Singapore where he stated they only spend 20% of what the US does and gets better results. A horrible indictment of US medical.
Note, Charlie Munger sits on the board of a major hospital so should know.
Hopefully, Trump can convince everyone from China, Iran, Europe and others free and fair trade of goods and services is the most beneficial to all. All countries need free and fair trade, whether they know it or not. 5G combined with AI/ML will change EVERYTHING. When everyone comes to their senses and realizes maximizing the potential of each and every person should be the ultimate goal. Military, prisons and corruption are the ultimate waste. A powerful economy has the most benefit for the most people and a company that maximizes the potential of its people has the most potential. The semi/nanotech industry is in the process of unleashing the largest change in human history, a singularity comprised of IOT/AI/ML/5G. I hope we have enough people of wisdom to use it to maximize human potential. The greatest gauge of an intelligent person is to maximize themselves and the people around them, IOT/ML/AI/5G will make this possible on a scale not even imaginable before. Let's hope we have the wisdom to pursue this goal. This is why I hold Sal Khan and Marc Benioff in the highest regard for their efforts in high quality education at no cost.
Actually there are several trillion dollars questions:
Republic of China (ROC, official name of Taiwan) was founded 107 years ago as a democratic republic and used to administrate the whole mainland China until the Communist revolution in 1949. The communist China now control the mainland and call itself the People's Republic of China (PROC).
1. Will the democratic ROC (Taiwan) take back the whole mainland China if there's a democratic revolution in mainland? It's possible but very difficult. But who knows! How many people were able to predict the collapse of Soviet Union back in 1980's ~ 1991? I didn't and so did many well inform experts.
2. Will communist PROC invade ROC (Taiwan) to fulfill its "One China" ambition? It's possible but almost impossible and the chance is dwindling. One reason is the alliance among ROC (Taiwan), USA, and Japan is getting stronger every day. The military, economic, and political consequence caused by the invasion of Taiwan will be way too big for PROC to endure.
3. Will ROC and PROC stay what they are today (essentially a stalemate)? From my point of view, it's the only logical conclusion at this moment.
