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  1. M

    Bernie Sanders is proposing .. a 50% govt ownership of AI companies

    I am a fan of sovereign wealth funds to grow new industries (not buy into a bubble at its peak) is it a one time 50% stock tax LOL? and we all share the Profit and loss of OPEN AI and Anthropic .... YAY!
  2. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    I think LBT did a great summary on this. First window was clearly missed for 18A.... everyone looked.... everyone passed. there is a lot of follow on opportunities for 18A for next 3-5 years and LBT is trying to hit first window on 14A. I cannot imaging a company prioritizing Intel over TSMC...
  3. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    the revenue would indicate that there are no large volume packaging projects for other companies in production as of Q1 2026. I am sure they are working details on packaging development projects and addressing the challenges. If you told me to do a package as complex as Clearwater Forest using...
  4. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    I cant give exact numbers but, no, we cannot assume yield is 70% to 80% today. But your equation is correct. you are on the right track!! :ROFLMAO: :LOL:
  5. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    100% agree the shortage gives them the leverage to push people off of 7 (there are people on 10 too). they we can see if they can make 18A cost effective with higher volume. FYI: one way to track this. In future we will know that there is success when Intel states that GM improved due to...
  6. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    Interesting points on this. Couple items: 1) TSMC does put HBM packages assembled by others onto CoWoS. They do not put logic die from other fabs on their packaging 2) One technical note for TSMC reasoning. It can be very difficult to control advanced packaging of logic die if you do not...
  7. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    @hist78 Exactly: I can tell you that the yield in May 2026 was the yield (DPW) in May 2025 multiplied by 1.07^12. After looking at all the data in retrospect, the initial yield, the yield learning rate and the current yield are not really that far off from the Plan of record. In May 2025...
  8. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    you are going back to the past. In the past, IFS was a cost center with zero P&L. All costs and losses were allocated to BUs. As part of the agreement with Pat to have Intel continue to do manufacturing internally (BUs did not want to do it based on poor costs and poor delivery). the...
  9. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    As I mentioned before, to my surprise, the yield did increase 7% per month over the last year (1.07x mor3 DPW each month). The yield intel tracks is Panther lake CPU at wafer sort. There are still packaged unit losses after that and binning I dont recommend try to get too into arguing the...
  10. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    You nailed it..... that is exactly the challenge IMO. they need billions more in revenue and competitive wafer costs. Intel understands this challenge and knows the exact numbers needed to be successful. .... no one is sure if they can hit them but we will see
  11. M

    Can Intel Save America?

    All I know is Intel somehow shrank its business during one of the great booms in compute history. everyone else grew massively. My point is that America doesnt need Intel to be saved..... Intel needs to see if it can join the massive success of all the other great American companies and the...
  12. M

    Can Intel Save America?

    even without Intel, America is doing amazing in tech. Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Micron, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla. All are dominant and growing and leading the world as much as anytime. As far as fabs, Micron is building, TSMC is building, Samsung is building...
  13. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    Intel has a N2 like technology and chose TSMC N2 for nova lake for PPAC reasons, not capacity (per Intel) The two questions that need to get answered: Can Intel get external customers as needed to pay for development (2B per year next year, needs to be 15B per year in 2032) (per Intel) Can...
  14. M

    Nvidia to spend $150 billion a year in Taiwan, 'epicentre' of AI revolution, says CEO

    But but but..... taiwan will be invaded and destroyed by then. this is going to happen in the next 2 years LOL :LOL: :ROFLMAO: Obviously Jensen and Lisa Su do not understand Taiwan like the "experts" do </end sarcasm>
  15. M

    Intel Roadmap Leak Hints at NVIDIA GPUs in 2028 Titan Lake-B/BX; Hammer Lake May Revive Hyperthreading

    great info ... thanks!! I said this is the leak season going into computex! I havent seen the customer roadmaps leaked yet with timing for launches .... let me know if you see those posted somewhere.
  16. M

    Intel 10% by 2030 still?

    I really like your model, I have one in excel that is simpler that I have used since 2020 for IFS but yours is better thought out from a product revenue point of view I think at a very high level, simplisticly, your model hits the nail on the head. IF IFS is break even next year AND gets 2B...
  17. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    This is a little incorrect. Obviously the % depends on design and chip size etc. But the yields were obviously below 50-55% in mid 2025. LBT mentioned that yields increased significantly between May 2025 and May 2026 and is now on track for target yield by end of 2026 Intel will solve the yield...
  18. M

    Elon Musk’s Terafab chip factory in Texas could cost up to $119 billion, filing shows

    I am a big fan of the Samsung Site. great for Texas and the US. Everyone has a "plan" for high speed rail. Did they spend money on useless segments where no one goes in Texas? The actual California plan is worse than any sarcastic snarky comment I could possible make. Americans are unable to...
  19. M

    OpenAI's Altman says AI unlikely to lead to 'jobs apocalypse'

    Classic response. I asked a specific question and it gave a unintelligent summary of what could happen and dumped semiaccurate data. Summarizing the internet is not intelligence. Dont get me started on how it references reddit and Facebook. AI also provides incorrect information to smart...
  20. M

    OpenAI's Altman says AI unlikely to lead to 'jobs apocalypse'

    I would be interested in a good summary of what exact jobs have been replaced. top 10 jobs that have seen 50% replacement rate. For example, I assume it replaced artists making pictures for internet articles. and it replaced coders. And paralegals summarizing case history for legal studies. And...
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