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  1. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    @hist78 Exactly: I can tell you that the yield in May 2026 was the yield (DPW) in May 2025 multiplied by 1.07^12. After looking at all the data in retrospect, the initial yield, the yield learning rate and the current yield are not really that far off from the Plan of record. In May 2025...
  2. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    you are going back to the past. In the past, IFS was a cost center with zero P&L. All costs and losses were allocated to BUs. As part of the agreement with Pat to have Intel continue to do manufacturing internally (BUs did not want to do it based on poor costs and poor delivery). the...
  3. M

    Morgan Stanley reports Intel 18A yield at 50%

    As I mentioned before, to my surprise, the yield did increase 7% per month over the last year (1.07x mor3 DPW each month). The yield intel tracks is Panther lake CPU at wafer sort. There are still packaged unit losses after that and binning I dont recommend try to get too into arguing the...
  4. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    You nailed it..... that is exactly the challenge IMO. they need billions more in revenue and competitive wafer costs. Intel understands this challenge and knows the exact numbers needed to be successful. .... no one is sure if they can hit them but we will see
  5. M

    Can Intel Save America?

    All I know is Intel somehow shrank its business during one of the great booms in compute history. everyone else grew massively. My point is that America doesnt need Intel to be saved..... Intel needs to see if it can join the massive success of all the other great American companies and the...
  6. M

    Can Intel Save America?

    even without Intel, America is doing amazing in tech. Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Micron, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla. All are dominant and growing and leading the world as much as anytime. As far as fabs, Micron is building, TSMC is building, Samsung is building...
  7. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    Intel has a N2 like technology and chose TSMC N2 for nova lake for PPAC reasons, not capacity (per Intel) The two questions that need to get answered: Can Intel get external customers as needed to pay for development (2B per year next year, needs to be 15B per year in 2032) (per Intel) Can...
  8. M

    Nvidia to spend $150 billion a year in Taiwan, 'epicentre' of AI revolution, says CEO

    But but but..... taiwan will be invaded and destroyed by then. this is going to happen in the next 2 years LOL :LOL: :ROFLMAO: Obviously Jensen and Lisa Su do not understand Taiwan like the "experts" do </end sarcasm>
  9. M

    Intel Roadmap Leak Hints at NVIDIA GPUs in 2028 Titan Lake-B/BX; Hammer Lake May Revive Hyperthreading

    great info ... thanks!! I said this is the leak season going into computex! I havent seen the customer roadmaps leaked yet with timing for launches .... let me know if you see those posted somewhere.
  10. M

    Intel 10% by 2030 still?

    I really like your model, I have one in excel that is simpler that I have used since 2020 for IFS but yours is better thought out from a product revenue point of view I think at a very high level, simplisticly, your model hits the nail on the head. IF IFS is break even next year AND gets 2B...
  11. M

    Why Intel Still Trails TSMC In The High Stakes Foundry Race

    This is a little incorrect. Obviously the % depends on design and chip size etc. But the yields were obviously below 50-55% in mid 2025. LBT mentioned that yields increased significantly between May 2025 and May 2026 and is now on track for target yield by end of 2026 Intel will solve the yield...
  12. M

    Elon Musk’s Terafab chip factory in Texas could cost up to $119 billion, filing shows

    I am a big fan of the Samsung Site. great for Texas and the US. Everyone has a "plan" for high speed rail. Did they spend money on useless segments where no one goes in Texas? The actual California plan is worse than any sarcastic snarky comment I could possible make. Americans are unable to...
  13. M

    OpenAI's Altman says AI unlikely to lead to 'jobs apocalypse'

    Classic response. I asked a specific question and it gave a unintelligent summary of what could happen and dumped semiaccurate data. Summarizing the internet is not intelligence. Dont get me started on how it references reddit and Facebook. AI also provides incorrect information to smart...
  14. M

    OpenAI's Altman says AI unlikely to lead to 'jobs apocalypse'

    I would be interested in a good summary of what exact jobs have been replaced. top 10 jobs that have seen 50% replacement rate. For example, I assume it replaced artists making pictures for internet articles. and it replaced coders. And paralegals summarizing case history for legal studies. And...
  15. M

    Intel's Lip-Bu Tan: "B0 you keep your job, anything about that you are fired"

    When Pat took over, the plan was 100% to end process development.... sooner than 2030 for sure. I have written on how this played out and what changed when Pat took over. The question is whether changing that plan was a good decision or not. We shall see. but at least it is no longer a risk to...
  16. M

    15 of the most powerful CEOs in tech were asked the same question: Will AI replace jobs?

    Did AI make this summary?
  17. M

    Intel's Lip-Bu Tan: "B0 you keep your job, anything about that you are fired"

    18A is cheaper per transitor at target yields than 20A. Reminder Intel 4 and Intel 20A were always checkout nodes..... I actually thought that was a brilliant idea.... get something out on 1-2 products, then optimize it. The 20A checkout option was financial disaster (due to minimal 18A...
  18. M

    Intel 10% by 2030 still?

    I think the plan was pretty clear. 2 fabs in Arizona, 2 Fabs In Ohio.... then israel then Germany. They committed to have 4 new fabs by 2026 minimum. They have one fab now, 52 doesnt hit full planned capacity until end of year. As LBT clearly discussed, that plan put Intel in a very dangerous...
  19. M

    Intel's Lip-Bu Tan: "B0 you keep your job, anything about that you are fired"

    Being at low yield, 9 months before PRQ is not really that shocking. The only shock was to people who believed PG when he said 20A was cancelled because 18A was doing so well..... it wasnt. 18A could be break even this year. we will see financial progress when Q2 results come in.
  20. M

    Intel Foundry’s Rio Rancho Facility To Become Its Crown Jewel In Production of Next-Gen Glass Substrates

    That is quite a nice bit of hyperbole. Lets get to 2B in sales external (top 20 foundry/osat, 5% of Intel revenue) and go from there. When do people think glass substrates are ramping into production (end customers buying products containing glass substrates)?
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