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Would TSM Remain Functional if China Seizes It?

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
Would TSM remain functional after a war? Spare parts would be cut off, key employees would leave and much of their support network at home and abroad would be damaged? On top of this, would other foundries outside of China's reach could upgrade, especially if they attracted enough key people to bring other foundries up to TSM standards?
 
There are a lot of unknowns. How many Taiwanese accept their new overlords? Does the Republican army sabotage/destroy the island's infrastructure or industry? How many of the engineers and scientists go back to the USA? Presumably they would be prevented from getting new equipment (given that they are now within the PRC to say nothing of extra sanctions that would get slapped on the PRC). Realistically, TSMC's ability to function as they do now would be over, but to what degree they would be functional at all is an unknown. But just my 2 cents.
 
Morris Chang said no. Everything will be destroyed.

Me: No. Most employees are male and have to go to war. Even the war ended and Taiwan lose. A majority people will leave Taiwan. The rest won't be enough for TSMC
 
Does the PRC want Taiwan without a functional TSMC? The above answers say there can't be a war AND a functional TSMC, so I think that says there should not be a war. Is Xi crazy? I don't think so. So a standoff is very likely. There are very entrenched positions and currently no place to negotiate to. I hope it can stay a standoff for a long time.
 
Does the PRC want Taiwan without a functional TSMC? The above answers say there can't be a war AND a functional TSMC, so I think that says there should not be a war. Is Xi crazy? I don't think so. So a standoff is very likely. There are very entrenched positions and currently no place to negotiate to. I hope it can stay a standoff for a long time.
I don't think Xi is crazy, but he may have different priorities and strategies than we have. He may, for example, think that hurting TSMC has more impact on the US and Europe than it would China, giving China a net win. In that case, he may be willing to sacrifice TSMC to weaken western economies. If Xi was thinking like us he probably wouldn't have threatened globalization, which benefited greatly China economically. But I hope we can keep the status quo for a long time too.
 
Does the PRC want Taiwan without a functional TSMC? The above answers say there can't be a war AND a functional TSMC, so I think that says there should not be a war. Is Xi crazy? I don't think so. So a standoff is very likely. There are very entrenched positions and currently no place to negotiate to. I hope it can stay a standoff for a long time.
I think you over value TSMC. Is it a big boon? Of course. However I think the political boon might be even greater. As the PRC sees it the ROC is a threat to the PRC's legitimacy, and it is a symbol of resistance to Beijing's authority and hegemony over all of "China". This might sound nuts, but you have to remember this is the nation that doesn't allow time travel narratives because that would imply that you could stop the "inevitable revolution/progression of society" that the CCP started. Between the unrest that a war would cause and the unrest of the ensuring economic collapse (mostly from sanctions and corporate pull outs) of the PRC - the government would be unlikely to survive - and this I think is the reason the PRC has not yet invaded the ROC's last hold out. So for now the PRC endures the "insult" to it's "legitimacy" because it is better than having a Taiping or Yellow Turban rebellion 2.0 and the ensuring civil war/power vacuum.
 
Would TSM remain functional after a war? Spare parts would be cut off, key employees would leave and much of their support network at home and abroad would be damaged? On top of this, would other foundries outside of China's reach could upgrade, especially if they attracted enough key people to bring other foundries up to TSM standards?
Most people in Taiwan would be very angry if China invaded, to put it lightly. The Taiwanese would not accept their new overlords and would 100% damage/sabotage the equipment if it became clear it would fall into the PRC's hands.

Also, given how specialized and precise the equipment is, I think even a janitor pouring a soda on the equipment would be more than enough to deal permanent, lasting damage to it. One easier thing is to literally take all the mirrors and lenses out of the DUV and EUV machines and drop them, shattering the glass. There are way more things that could be done to sabotage the equipment, given how precise it is. Given the necessity for clean room environments, what would happen if the equipment faced a non-clean room environment because a bomb blasted through the room of one of the factories?

Many of these posts have focused on the human capital aspect, which also would completely flee from China. Don't forget that it is highly likely that Taiwan's military moves to guerilla warfare and threatens the Chinese engineers that go to Taiwan to inspect the damaged equipment and try to reconstruct things such as EUV.

In short, TSM would not survive. But TSM is not a true shield for Taiwan. Look at the new CCP. Xi is an ideologue now, not willing to compromise with reformers (forcing them all out) who are much more focused on economic growth. You think he wants TSMC? Sure, I guess, but it really isn't some crazy prize. He wants to be able to say that he completed the reunification of China and invaded Taiwan. He doesn't care about his economy. Look at what his policy of Zero-COVID did to China's economy. He still does not care. His guidance by ideology means that no economic sanctions will EVER sway him from his ultimate goal of reunification, by force (if necessary [he believes it is 100% necessary]).
 
Even without intentional physical destructions, fabs will stop functioning within weeks. Fabs are inherently international. Parts and materials are manufactured in different parts of the world. Some of these critical parts took years and years of know-how accumulation, not easy for anyone to copy/duplicate, let alone China. Some examples are advanced photoresists in lithography, ceramic parts used in plasma processing, specialty and high purity gases and chemicals, none of these is easy to duplicate and IP/know-how are carefully kept secrets. Most of these materials have shelf life and needs periodic new supply and if such supply is cut off, fabs will stop functioning.
 
Morris Chang said no. Everything will be destroyed.

Me: No. Most employees are male and have to go to war. Even the war ended and Taiwan lose. A majority people will leave Taiwan. The rest won't be enough for TSMC
A kindly reminder: It could be not true. Typically Taiwan government give a waiver of annual military drills to all tsmc males employees to let them focus on works.
 
A kindly reminder: It could be not true. Typically Taiwan government give a waiver of annual military drills to all tsmc males employees to let them focus on works.
I suspect an act of war by China will be different than military drills. I think VCT is more likely correct.
 
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Even without intentional physical destructions, fabs will stop functioning within weeks. Fabs are inherently international. Parts and materials are manufactured in different parts of the world. Some of these critical parts took years and years of know-how accumulation, not easy for anyone to copy/duplicate, let alone China. Some examples are advanced photoresists in lithography, ceramic parts used in plasma processing, specialty and high purity gases and chemicals, none of these is easy to duplicate and IP/know-how are carefully kept secrets. Most of these materials have shelf life and needs periodic new supply and if such supply is cut off, fabs will stop functioning.
Yes, the recurring airspace exercises indicate disruption of flights is the most likely endeavor.
 
Even without intentional physical destructions, fabs will stop functioning within weeks. Fabs are inherently international. Parts and materials are manufactured in different parts of the world. Some of these critical parts took years and years of know-how accumulation, not easy for anyone to copy/duplicate, let alone China. Some examples are advanced photoresists in lithography, ceramic parts used in plasma processing, specialty and high purity gases and chemicals, none of these is easy to duplicate and IP/know-how are carefully kept secrets. Most of these materials have shelf life and needs periodic new supply and if such supply is cut off, fabs will stop functioning.
This is why the obsession with ASML and their one part of the process somewhat bemuse me at times.

Its almost as if those who are writing the headlines have no idea what goes into producing a chip of any sort from start to finish.
 
Yes, the recurring airspace exercises indicate disruption of flights is the most likely endeavor.
Doest Taiwan Air defence zone extend over China for historical reasons , therefore these "intrusions" likely happen all the time.
Its only on slow news days that they get reported.
 
This is why the obsession with ASML and their one part of the process somewhat bemuse me at times.

Its almost as if those who are writing the headlines have no idea what goes into producing a chip of any sort from start to finish.
The fascination with ASML shouldn't bemuse you at all; it just makes for interesting "oh wow" articles aimed at non-experts. It even impresses experts. Each machine requires "40 shipping containers, 20 trucks, and three Boeing 747s", and costs over US$150M. I doubt The New York Times could write an exciting story about Synopsys.

 
If CCP attacks Taiwan, a question has to be raised is:

Can PRC's economy and infrastructure sustain Taiwan's missiles retaliation? Most of major PRC industrial and business centers are within Taiwan missiles' range, it's PRC to lose much more than a tiny Taiwan island.

Ukraine doesn't have enough or reliable missiles to attack Moscow. But Taiwan has plenty of missiles to reach Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing. I don't see this can go well for the newly minted "Emperor" Xi.
 
Doest Taiwan Air defence zone extend over China for historical reasons , therefore these "intrusions" likely happen all the time.
Its only on slow news days that they get reported.
There have been numerous entries into the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), which includes international and China airspace,

1666759517679.png

but (so far) not entering true TW airspace (12 nautical miles).
1666759681795.png
 
If CCP attacks Taiwan, a question has to be raised is:

Can PRC's economy and infrastructure sustain Taiwan's missiles retaliation? Most of major PRC industrial and business centers are within Taiwan missiles' range, it's PRC to lose much more than a tiny Taiwan island.

Ukraine doesn't have enough or reliable missiles to attack Moscow. But Taiwan has plenty of missiles to reach Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing. I don't see this can go well for the newly minted "Emperor" Xi.

Ukraine certainly does have a lot of long ballistic missile which can reach Russian territory,besides Nato also provides Ukraine with long range weapons. So far Russia and Ukraine both side have been restrained from doing so. They mainly aim at military target,for good reason.

As for the effect of missile bombing,there is misconception that carpet bombing can destroy enemy's war machine. Which is far from true. During WWII,Nazi Germany thought they could take the UK to it's knee by bombing,but apparently that didn't work.

Conventional warhead missiles are mainly used for paralyze enemy movements for a certain period(like disable airstrip),so you can attack enemy before they can fix it. The effect of conventional warhead missiles on civilian target is mainly psychological. China has mutiple times more missiles than Taiwan,but I don't think PLA will waste it on civilian targets.

An other important factor needs to be considered is industrial capacity,aka how fast can you produce weapons during war time. As we can see from Ukraine war,missiles and ammos quickly depleted at the begining of the war,now the daily intensity of bombardment on both side is reduced to a very low level compare to few months ago. The US was able to produce more military resources and weapons than Germany and Japan combined during WWII,and that's the key to allied force victory. So the question you got to ask is,China vs Taiwan who can mass produce more weapons at a faster rate?

Unless Taiwan go nuclear,otherwise I don't see how regular missiles can deter PLA. As Taiwan would quickly deplete it's missile inventory if it choose to fire all it's missile to Chinese cities instead of military target. Too bad Ukraine gave up their nuclear arsenal back in 90s,if they didn't do that the war won't happen today.
 
If CCP attacks Taiwan, a question has to be raised is:

Can PRC's economy and infrastructure sustain Taiwan's missiles retaliation? Most of major PRC industrial and business centers are within Taiwan missiles' range, it's PRC to lose much more than a tiny Taiwan island.

Ukraine doesn't have enough or reliable missiles to attack Moscow. But Taiwan has plenty of missiles to reach Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing. I don't see this can go well for the newly minted "Emperor" Xi.
Ukraine have no reason to fire missiles or drop any bombs in Russia.

The Ukraine authorities know its a lose lose for them to "attack" Russia.
 
Ukraine certainly does have a lot of long ballistic missile which can reach Russian territory,besides Nato also provides Ukraine with long range weapons. So far Russia and Ukraine both side have been restrained from doing so. They mainly aim at military target,for good reason.

As for the effect of missile bombing,there is misconception that carpet bombing can destroy enemy's war machine. Which is far from true. During WWII,Nazi Germany thought they could take the UK to it's knee by bombing,but apparently that didn't work.

Conventional warhead missiles are mainly used for paralyze enemy movements for a certain period(like disable airstrip),so you can attack enemy before they can fix it. The effect of conventional warhead missiles on civilian target is mainly psychological. China has mutiple times more missiles than Taiwan,but I don't think PLA will waste it on civilian targets.

An other important factor needs to be considered is industrial capacity,aka how fast can you produce weapons during war time. As we can see from Ukraine war,missiles and ammos quickly depleted at the begining of the war,now the daily intensity of bombardment on both side is reduced to a very low level compare to few months ago. The US was able to produce more military resources and weapons than Germany and Japan combined during WWII,and that's the key to allied force victory. So the question you got to ask is,China vs Taiwan who can mass produce more weapons at a faster rate?

Unless Taiwan go nuclear,otherwise I don't see how regular missiles can deter PLA. As Taiwan would quickly deplete it's missile inventory if it choose to fire all it's missile to Chinese cities instead of military target. Too bad Ukraine gave up their nuclear arsenal back in 90s,if they didn't do that the war won't happen today.
Ukraine gave up its Nuclear Weapons in exchange for a gaurantee of Sovereignty , signed by Russia.


And much like the CCP , Putin and the Communists in Russia have shown that they cannot be trusted on anything that they sign.
 
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