Agree for most part except #1, Samsung's profits in DRAM mainly come from mobile (LPDDR), server (DDR/HBM) and graphics (GDDR/HBM), not plain ol desktop memory. It's not like M1 devices aren't using LPDDR memory from Samsung/Hynix/Micron so they're not going away. Nothing to replace standard DRAM either in the near term horizon either, and unlike NAND, no threat from Chinese fabs.
#2, most likely will be a glut with all the spending. YMTC's impact will be interesting to see and there's still the matter of the consolidation, possibly between Kioxia and WD.
#3, depends on how much weight we place on their roadmaps, actual dimensions and yield. Intel sure is barking loudly about their goals and execution strategies, but can they really pull it off after wanking off for so long? And how many EUV litho systems will they be able to get their hands on, especially high-NA variants? Seems like Samsung's got their hands on more units than Intel does. We know Samsung has a dedicated EUV line in Hwaseong, does Intel? Just open ended questions, I don't have the answers to them.
#4, I don't think Apple is as shallow as people think, they just go with whoever makes a better product at a better price point at the quantities they need and when they need it. It's business at the end of the day, and Samsung has faltered since somewhere around the 10nm node. They wouldn't consider Samsung if their 2nm process is worse than TSMC's current 5nm, at least not for their leading edge chips. If Samsung made a competitive alternative, had good yields and could delivery the quantities needed on time, why not?
#5, Agreed. Small factors to consider would be how stable electricity generation and water availability will be in Taiwan going forward with their own renewable energy mandates/targets. Always a risk for earthquakes as well. But for most part, as long as they don't stumble, it's their race to win. The only other question is, it is necessarily a good thing for one company to have a monopoly? I'm not comfortable with having all eggs in one basket with ASML/TSMC, but that's just me, just another non semiconductor professional!