Solar Cells Nearing 30% inflection point

[Arthur Hanson]

Solar cells are nearing the 30% efficiency point that makes them competitive with most power sources if the costs can be kept in check. Advancing technologies in batteries and solar cells are very close to the point of creating major disruptions to the traditional power structure, economically and technically. Also on the horizon are phase change materials that can store and release heat, changing heating and cooling, major consumers of power. The traditional power structure is undergoing economic changes that will soon make it very difficult to recover stranded capital costs of major new projects. So many technologies are coming on that the level of disruption in many ecosystems both economically and technically are moving to fast to keep our social and political systems stable. Just looking at the number of countries that need hundred dollar oil to stay afloat is but one example. The use of semis of all types has upped the efficiency of even old technologies like internal combustion engines to the point the whole economic game is changing.

New silicon/perovskite solar cell world record nears 30% efficiency

Silicon has long been the gold standard for solar cells, but it’s beginning to reach its limit. Perovskite is emerging as a promising partner, and now engineers have achieved a new efficiency record closing in on 30 percent for this kind of tandem solar cell.

newatlas.com

 

[count]

It's already become cheaper to build a new solar plant than to continue to run existing natural gas and coal plants in many parts of the US, which is pretty astonishing. Many oil and gas companies were looking at natural gas as a bridge to a future of renewables, but it turns out the future is already here and the bridge is no longer needed.

 

[Santhoff]

It's already become cheaper to build a new solar plant than to continue to run existing natural gas and coal plants in many parts of the US, which is pretty astonishing. Many oil and gas companies were looking at natural gas as a bridge to a future of renewables, but it turns out the future is already here and the bridge is no longer needed.

Could you provide a credible reference for that statement? Solar is getting better, but take away the government subsidies, the actual real-world generation of power and not the theoretical power generation of a solar cell producing at 100% of rating 10 hours per day and every credible publication shows they are still over twice as expensive as natural gas.

 

[count]

Could you provide a credible reference for that statement? Solar is getting better, but take away the government subsidies, the actual real-world generation of power and not the theoretical power generation of a solar cell producing at 100% of rating 10 hours per day and every credible publication shows they are still over twice as expensive as natural gas.

Here's one link where a PPA deal was made for around 2.5c/kWh in Arizona 2 years ago. I'm hearing about sub 2c PPAs in Texas and Arizona now. I'm actually about to leave my current job to work at a Solar startup and I went through all the economics with the CEO. They can provide solar at around 2-3c/kWh or less in sunnier parts of the country. Unsubsidized it's still cheaper than natural gas which is around 5c/kWh, but I don't have exact numbers. You actually have oil companies all over Texas entering projects to power compressor stations with Solar because it's cheaper than natural gas, and these are companies that have virtually free natural gas.

New PPA In Arizona Locks In Lowest Solar Prices In US As Demise Of Navajo Station Looms - CleanTechnica

A power purchase agreement signed June 7 in Arizona locks in the lowest solar energy prices yet in the US. The agreement is part of the plan to decommission the enormous Navajo Generating Station.

cleantechnica.com

 

[count]

Here is a more through analysis for unsubsidized cost and more recent (2019) numbers.

Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage 2019

Levelized Cost of Energy and of Storage shows that as the cost of renewable energy continues to decline.

www.lazard.com

 

[Santhoff]

Here's one link where a PPA deal was made for around 2.5c/kWh in Arizona 2 years ago. I'm hearing about sub 2c PPAs in Texas and Arizona now. I'm actually about to leave my current job to work at a Solar startup and I went through all the economics with the CEO. They can provide solar at around 2-3c/kWh or less in sunnier parts of the country. Unsubsidized it's still cheaper than natural gas which is around 5c/kWh, but I don't have exact numbers. You actually have oil companies all over Texas entering projects to power compressor stations with Solar because it's cheaper than natural gas, and these are companies that have virtually free natural gas.

New PPA In Arizona Locks In Lowest Solar Prices In US As Demise Of Navajo Station Looms - CleanTechnica

A power purchase agreement signed June 7 in Arizona locks in the lowest solar energy prices yet in the US. The agreement is part of the plan to decommission the enormous Navajo Generating Station.

cleantechnica.com

The Federal and State governments provided tax incentives because the solar was supposed to replace a coal fired plant on an Indian reservation. Take away the Federal and State government incentives and the the pricing collapses. The deal was signed two years ago and it's not clear the plant was ever actually built and if it was it has not generated any electricity to date that I could find.

In Texas the reason oil companies use solar has nothing to do with price but logistics. They would have to construct a gas pipeline out to a remote area and then build a power plant to burn the gas and generate power. Logistics wise using solar means they don't need to build the pipeline or construct a power plant.

 

[peter]

As always, the issue is storage. Solar is no question cheaper than conventional energy sources in certain geographies like much of the Southwest when and only when it can produce energy. It's just useless without storage in the other hours of the day when there's no sunlight. Storage costs are going down so it's just a matter of time when we pass the inflection point there where solar + storage is cheaper than gas peaker or whatever else there is.

As for the title suggesting 30% efficiency as some sort of inflection point, I don't see any correlation. Unless limited by roof space or land area, efficiency itself doesn't really matter as much as durability and levelized costs are, those are the main drivers of large scale deployment and there's no commercial scale production of perovskite cells much less enough studies showing the durability and life of such cells...and no guarantee it will cost any less than the flood of cheap silicon cells out now.

 

[count]

As always, the issue is storage. Solar is no question cheaper than conventional energy sources in certain geographies like much of the Southwest when and only when it can produce energy. It's just useless without storage in the other hours of the day when there's no sunlight. Storage costs are going down so it's just a matter of time when we pass the inflection point there where solar + storage is cheaper than gas peaker or whatever else there is.

As for the title suggesting 30% efficiency as some sort of inflection point, I don't see any correlation. Unless limited by roof space or land area, efficiency itself doesn't really matter as much as durability and levelized costs are, those are the main drivers of large scale deployment and there's no commercial scale production of perovskite cells much less enough studies showing the durability and life of such cells...and no guarantee it will cost any less than the flood of cheap silicon cells out now.

Battery storage is getting much cheaper, and at a faster rate than panel prices are dropping. Most new PV installations today include some amount of battery backup.

Agree with your point on the title. We've already reached the inflection point, and for the immediate future cheap silicon and thin film panels will continue to dominate, but it's good to see there is a continued path forward.

 

[IanD]

Newatlas are famously super-enthusiastic about shiny shiny new technology that never goes anywhere for practical/cost reasons, like new super-duper batteries or hydrogen power or fuel cells or Al-air batteries or... [I could go on forever]

There's a telling quote in the article:

"Ever since perovskite burst onto the solar cell scene around a decade ago, it’s broken efficiency records at a blistering pace"

So if they're so great and have been around for ten years, why isn't the world covered with super-efficient perovskite/silicon solar panels? Could it possibly be that they're too expensive to be competitive with silicon, or fragile, or output reduces with time, or can't be made in volume, or the raw materials are rare/expensive, or there isn't enough [fill in element of your choice] on the planet to serve the huge global energy market?

The tech world is littered with great ideas in the lab that never made it into the real world for easily predictable reasons like these, that are inevitably carefully ignored by sites like Newatlas -- but their business model obviously works, since uncritical people then propagate their articles across the internet to draw in page views from the gullible...

 

[Arthur Hanson]

Al

Newatlas are famously super-enthusiastic about shiny shiny new technology that never goes anywhere for practical/cost reasons, like new super-duper batteries or hydrogen power or fuel cells or Al-air batteries or... [I could go on forever]

There's a telling quote in the article:

"Ever since perovskite burst onto the solar cell scene around a decade ago, it’s broken efficiency records at a blistering pace"

So if they're so great and have been around for ten years, why isn't the world covered with super-efficient perovskite/silicon solar panels? Could it possibly be that they're too expensive to be competitive with silicon, or fragile, or output reduces with time, or can't be made in volume, or the raw materials are rare/expensive, or there isn't enough [fill in element of your choice] on the planet to serve the huge global energy market?

The tech world is littered with great ideas in the lab that never made it into the real world for easily predictable reasons like these, that are inevitably carefully ignored by sites like Newatlas -- but their business model obviously works, since uncritical people then propagate their articles across the internet to draw in page views from the gullible...

Already there are areas where solar power with storage is economic. Yes, Newatlas has shown off many technologies that have failed to gain traction, but just as many that have gained traction, just like many major corporation press releases, with TSM and a few others being exceptions to this rule. Even the top universities have failures. The road to success has many failures along the way and many times the more failures, the greater the success.

 

[IanD]

Al

Already there are areas where solar power with storage is economic. Yes, Newatlas has shown off many technologies that have failed to gain traction, but just as many that have gained traction, just like many major corporation press releases, with TSM and a few others being exceptions to this rule. Even the top universities have failures. The road to success has many failures along the way and many times the more failures, the greater the success.

That doesn't mean they should uncritically put forward what is basically publicity puff without actually checking the facts behind it, and asking the difficult questions about practicality before announcing it as a fantactic new discovery that will transform the world -- except that would involve thinking and understanding science and technology, and they don't do that.

And I have to say that you have a reputation for uncritically posting stuff like this. BTW, did you hear that they've taken the word "gullible" out of the OED this year? ;-)

 

[Portland]

Al

Already there are areas where solar power with storage is economic. Yes, Newatlas has shown off many technologies that have failed to gain traction, but just as many that have gained traction, just like many major corporation press releases, with TSM and a few others being exceptions to this rule. Even the top universities have failures. The road to success has many failures along the way and many times the more failures, the greater the success.

The technology exists but there's a lack of technical people.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

That doesn't mean they should uncritically put forward what is basically publicity puff without actually checking the facts behind it, and asking the difficult questions about practicality before announcing it as a fantactic new discovery that will transform the world -- except that would involve thinking and understanding science and technology, and they don't do that.

And I have to say that you have a reputation for uncritically posting stuff like this. BTW, did you hear that they've taken the word "gullible" out of the OED this year? ;-)

IanD, The road to success for most technologies is built on a road of failures, just as Thomas Edison was criticized for his numerous failed filament materials to which he responded basically it wasn't failures at all, but figuring what wouldn't work. Most of the time, the greatest successes are built on a string or pyramid of failures, that are far from worthless and have great value, for they are just steps to success. Out of failures have come some of my greatest accomplishments, it's called learning. Newatlas putting even failing projects out there, gets researchers thinking in new directions, which in itself is a valuable contribution. Look at all the companies in the semi sector that are great companies and their failures and realize most successes are built on a massive string of failures called experimentation. The people that push the boundaries fail many times, but learn much along the way, just look at Sir Richard Branson and Elon Musk is the space race or Uri Gagarin who watched three rockets blow up and still stepped into that space capsule. Most of the greatest successes are built on a string of failures in everything from politics, science and relationships. One of my very greatest successes was built on a string of failures. You don't understand the purpose of Newatlas.

 

[IanD]

I understand the purpose of Newatlas perfectly -- for the kind of things you keep posting from there, it's to provide uncritically positive clickbait headlines for people to then spread via sites like semiwiki, so that Newatlas gets more page views and makes more money from advertisers. Am I wrong? Do you really think they're an altruistic and accurate information service?

This kind of "this breakthrough will fix our problems" headline (usually with no investigation of the realities behind it) particularly appeals to people who want to believe that technology can fix their problems painlessly, instead of facing up to the unpleasant fact that they need to make major lifestyle changes like reducing energy usage and emissions or completely rethinking business models. Medical tech breakthroughs won't fix the broken US health system, MEMs won't suddenly transform the semiconductor world, hydrogen or Al-air batteries aren't a magic bullet to solve lithium battery problems, biofuels won't keep the oil/gas industry going -- do I need to go on?

 

[Arthur Hanson]

I understand the purpose of Newatlas perfectly -- for the kind of things you keep posting from there, it's to provide uncritically positive clickbait headlines for people to then spread via sites like semiwiki, so that Newatlas gets more page views and makes more money from advertisers. Am I wrong? Do you really think they're an altruistic and accurate information service?

This kind of "this breakthrough will fix our problems" headline (usually with no investigation of the realities behind it) particularly appeals to people who want to believe that technology can fix their problems painlessly, instead of facing up to the unpleasant fact that they need to make major lifestyle changes like reducing energy usage and emissions or completely rethinking business models. Medical tech breakthroughs won't fix the broken US health system, MEMs won't suddenly transform the semiconductor world, hydrogen or Al-air batteries aren't a magic bullet to solve lithium battery problems, biofuels won't keep the oil/gas industry going -- do I need to go on?

I use Newatlas as a starting point, just as I use SemiWiki or any other publication. I also read MIT Technology Review every morning. I have a whole list of technical and financial publications I read. Barrons and the Economist are also key reads of mine. My investment returns are significantly above average and that's where I let the results speak for themselves. I follow the money, health and happiness, that's where the truth is the ultimate goal. I have had many investments fail, but if I didn't have the failures, I wouldn't have had the successes. I'm largely self taught and lived in libraries and had access to corporate libraries for years. Once working at a major corporate campus I grabbed some technical magazines to read during breaks and was disappointed when they were all in German. People who don't fail I find don't succeed either. Everyone has different methods and opinions and I hope yours works for you, mine works for me and many others. I have not worked for anyone for over twelve years and have made far more than any job. I have lost over a million dollars four times and had many investments go to zero or close to it, but my successes have far outweighed my failures that I have learned much from. People who don't have failures, have a tendency not to have successes. Learning from failures of others is far better than learning from you own. I treat my reading, including Newatlas as a starting point and it's a good one. If something else works better for you, it's a free country, follow it. Some of this so called click bait is using high end custom chips. Ultrasound technologies is one area Newatlas has covered that is now and in the future changing medical in major ways. I never read anything on the Kardashiuns, that's click bait, but for fashion people it's a resource. Many times reading is what you make of it.