Semis Greatest Gift, Compounding, TSM

[Arthur Hanson]

Semis's greatest gift to mankind is the ability to increase the rate of compounding the rate of accumulation, application, and disbursement of knowledge at an ever-increasing rate in just about everything. This has put our progress on steroids and this requires a whole new mindset in just about everything we touch. The cloud has put and distributed a level of expertise to our fingertips in a smartphone that is equipped to be the ultimate gateway to expertise applied to the world around us. This extends to our health, location, communications combined with the ever-increasing power of the cloud and the access it gives us to everything from services to finance to our health and an almost unlimited source of functions that are literally increasing by the day. Dealing with accelerated obsolescence will become a major skillset in itself as the pace of obsolescence reaches unimaginable levels in everything we touch.

Semis of all types are increasing the rate of change to the point our society is being radically changed in just about everything at an ever-increasing rate that is going to require governments and social structures including ourselves to adapt our lives and social structures or fall far behind those that do. Literally, everything is going obsolete well before its lifespan, including ourselves, social, governmental, educational, financial, and environmental structures.

Firms like Apple, Tesla, AMD, TSM, Google, and many, many others are leading the charge into this "Brave New World". TSM has mastered the art of combining leverage and compounding at every step of the process from labor talent, equipment, customer relationships(far longer than most), and especially not competing with their customers on their path of totally dominating the independent fab model. TSM will use compounding of everything to further widen their lead far into the future. I just hope we have the wisdom to use it to our benefit and freedom rather than our demise. Taking advantage of this to some extent has treated me very well and this has given me the ability to help others. Ignorance is the ultimate threat in just about anything the semi-revolution has given us the power of knowledge and the ability to seed truth on a scale never before achieved in human history. All of this has taken the compounding of everything to heights never imagined. With wisdom combined with determination, we will all prosper, without it, we will sow the seeds of our destruction. The choices before us are ours. Thoughts, comments and additions on this solicited for this is the most important challenge we face.

 

[thermionicvinyl]

As Einstein once said "The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest."

I'm sure this is applicable to semi's as well

 

[smeyer0028]

I think you are swallowing the AI hype without any skepticism.
Something interesting happened with biotech drug discovery
"compounding" recently. Google claims to have discovered
an AI algorithm to go from sequencing of DNA, RNA
and proteins to the 3 dimension structure of molecules. Claiming
the discovery will change new medicine discovery. The actual
story is rather different. Google submitted a paper for peer
review. I think it was rejected so Google issued a PR.
The biotech research committee responded with a blog
explaining what is wrong with the Google algorithm. Also
there is an academic normal biochemistry synthesis computer
program that gets results almost as good but uses only 1/10 the
computing power. The Google supposed deep learning algorithm
is just a Python computer program.

 

[schreier_qurv]

I agree what we live in a great new world. Software eats the world [Benedict Evans] and that's based on silicon. But it's all meaningless if we can't switch very fast to a sustainable energy source to power all that silicon. Otherwise our past will catch up degrade the infrastructure until it fails and then latest after 20 years the last silicon fails and that would have been it.
Read on power outages and their consequences. I think I read about it due to the texas power cut in this winter. Then check the damage to the infrastructure in Germany this summer due to flooding (600km of railway damaged estimated repair time 5-10 years).
We roughly have 5-10 years to get our shit together and I'm not seeing it happening.