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Per Digitimes Asia "Samsung, SK Hynix might not be able to produce next-gen memory in China in 3-5 years, warns expert".
I find this pretty funny, SK Hynix has a big DRAM plant in China. SK Hynix has already ramped up their 1a DRAM outside of China using EUV, their inability to utilize EUV in China is already a big problem with the China fab stuck on 1z. This breaking story about a problem that will materialize in 3-5 years is something that has already been a problem for at least a year. It is less clear cut where the break point will be for Samsung because they don't make DRAM in China, but they do make 3D NAND and the restrictions are less clear for 3D NAND.
It would be almost impossible for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to produce next-generation memory chips in China in 3-5 years at the latest as a result of the US tightening semiconductor trade sanctions against Chinese chip industry, a South Korean economic security expert has warned.
I think it will help Micron and Samsung on the DRAM side because it will constrain what SK Hynix can do in China and SK Hynix is also encountering long delays in their Yongin fab complex. Micron is planning new Fabs in the US but currently the majority of their memory is made in Asia.
The speculation is China will make due with domestic equipment. SMEE can do 193nm dry litho. That means China fabs may become very, very heavy in 65nm and above mature technology, eventually SMEE will figure out 193nm wet, and that will get them to 7nm.
Russia has adapted relatively well to sanctions, I see no reason China won’t do the same. Necessity is the mother of invention.
The speculation is China will make due with domestic equipment. SMEE can do 193nm dry litho. That means China fabs may become very, very heavy in 65nm and above mature technology, eventually SMEE will figure out 193nm wet, and that will get them to 7nm.
Russia has adapted relatively well to sanctions, I see no reason China won’t do the same. Necessity is the mother of invention.
