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With the purchase of ARM, Nvidia could easily leverage the ARM license deals in its favor. One method would be by uncoupling the ARM CPU and GPU IPs and instead offering an Nvidia GPU in the aforementioned bundle. This would probably occur at higher (and incrementally increasing) licensing fees. This push for Nvidia GPUs over Mali would shake up the entire mobile chip environment.
Bad for AMD
The first effect would be pushing competitors out of the market. For example, unlike Apple’s (AAPL) recent shift to ARM, which I called a blessing in disguise for AMD, Nvidia’s recent ARM-focused action is bad news for AMD. Nvidia could push AMD’s GPUs out of the mobile market. Samsung’s (OTC:SSNLF) upcoming Exynos SoC GPU is being developed by AMD.
Nvidia is likely to put a stop to the AMD ARM GPU. A few possibilities exist. For example, Nvidia could deny AMD the license. It could make the license deal with AMD unreasonably expensive. It could step in and offer Samsung a better deal. But the main reason I believe the Samsung-AMD deal will end is simply the threat of these aforementioned reasons. I discuss this more below; essentially, AMD cannot responsibly continue its reliance on ARM for its GPU deal with Samsung as that would not only make it reliant on Nvidia’s goodwill but also means that it is funneling its money to its direct competitor, which is a clear opportunity cost.
Nvidia’s ARM purchase could also put Qualcomm (QCOM) and PowerVR in danger. Smartphones SoCs aiming for ARM CPUs will see a heightened incentive to get Nvidia GPUs on the cheap. Moreover, as Nvidia GPUs begin eating up the mobile market share, more companies will be driven to code in CUDA, a free software platform released by Nvidia allowing for coding with Nvidia – and only Nvidia – GPUs.
Controlling ARM License Deals
As mentioned above, Nvidia’s ownership of ARM puts it in control of ARM license deals. Nvidia could simply refuse to provide ARM licenses to companies it deems to be in direct competition. In fact, the mere possibility of this is enough of a threat to force Nvidia competitors to leave certain markets. For a company to be reliant on the goodwill of Nvidia to continue providing ARM licenses is a liability, and for the sake of its shareholders, other options will certainly be considered.
Then, there is the licensing fee issue. SoftBank only barely made back its investment on its purchase of ARM via its licensing fees (ARM’s primary revenue stream), but in the hands of Nvidia, these licensing fees are worth more than their tiny ROIs. Nvidia’s ARM-reliant competitors now must “pay a tithe.” Money moving from one competitor to the other – all things being equal – is a change in the market that clearly benefits Nvidia while hurting Nvidia’s rivals.
AMD’s reliance on ARM technology now puts a sizable portion of its licensing spending into a river flowing directly to its direct competitor in the GPU market, essentially partially funding its opposition. This cash flow is clearly bullish for Nvidia, bearish for AMD, and might even result in AMD abandoning ARM for something like RISC-V, an act that would be bearish in at least the short term for AMD due to the investment required.
Moreover, we could see Nvidia produce ARM-based CPUs on the cheap in the near future, effectively entering the ARM CPU market to compete with AMD (and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)) on two fronts. Nvidia would not need to pay for ARM licensing, giving it an edge. This could allow Nvidia to enter new markets. One obvious market is the datacenter market, in which it can undercut its competitors, possibly pushing bundled deals with its highest-margin products and even offering its main moneymaker, GPUs. This, again, is bearish for AMD, as AMD has been hitting the datacenter market hard as of late.
Nvidia: Opening New Doors and Trade Implications
The purchase of ARM truly does open new doors for Nvidia in ways it did not for SoftBank.