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Memory Market Not Forecast to Exceed 2018 High until 2022

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Memory Market Not Forecast to Exceed 2018 High of $163.3B until 2022.
Strong growth forecast to return to the memory IC market in 2021 (21%) and 2022 (29%).

The most current 2017-2024 forecast for 33 major IC product segments (e.g., DRAM, 16-bit MCUs, power management analog devices, etc.) by market, unit shipments, and ASP was presented in the April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20).

A weak DRAM market put a lid on growth in the total memory market in 2015 and 2016. But robust DRAM and NAND flash market growth in 2017 and 2018 lifted the total memory market 64% and 26%, respectively (Figure 1). After those two outstanding growth years, the memory market reversed course in 2019 as DRAM and NAND flash sales dragged the overall memory market 32% lower to $110.4 billion.

Total Memory IC Market 2020.png

Figure 1

Before the global pandemic took hold in 1Q20, IC Insights was forecasting a strong 14% increase in the total memory market this year. As shown, the total memory market in 2020 is now expected to be flat with 2019. Although strong growth is expected to return to the memory market in 2021 (21%) and 2022 (29%), the total memory market is not expected to exceed the 2018 all-time high of $163.3 billion until 2022 when it is forecast to reach $171.0 billion, yielding a 2019-2022 CAGR of 15.7%.

DRAM is expected to account for 53% of the memory market in 2020 (Figure 2) and flash memory’s share is forecast to be 45% (44% NAND flash, 1% NOR flash). Though there remains a viable market for other memory products (EEPROM, EPROM, ROM, SRAM, etc.), in the future, it is highly unlikely these segments will collectively account for much more marketshare than they currently do.

cLEkaO74PqOQzTYLN9-KR_clLIgF_Mif2TEoi_nBle44d_UMVtCLM_zpGf_I04jA8XzcYT3eTY3tuegJvs6C5AIziKENqOLoLSECAsVO8cg_tPUCevXVuTIRSzzsKHI1E77TDysyS02diEPT_ek2Jhjn6TtdUA=s0-d-e1-ft

Figure 2

Report Details: The McClean Report
2020
Additional details on IC market trends are provided in the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including the 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.

PDF Version of This Bulletin
A PDF version of this Research Bulletin can be downloaded from our website at http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/
 
From Samsung:

Earnings from the Memory Business improved as demand was solid mainly from servers and PCs, while demand from mobile remained steady. Profits from the logic chip business rose as supply of mobile components increased to major customers and the foundry business saw a profit decline due to lower demand for high-performance computing (HPC) from China. For the Memory Business, the Company plans to address market changes through flexible investments and product mix adjustments. For the second half, while mobile demand – most affected by COVID-19 – remains as one of the uncertainties, overall memory conditions are likely to be favorable due to server and PC demand for a faster and more reliable cloud service experience. However, a prolonged COVID-19 crisis poses risks of reduction in overall demand.


The Semiconductor businesses posted KRW 17.64 trillion in consolidated revenue and KRW 3.99 trillion in operating profit in the first quarter.

The Memory Business saw solid demand in the period, despite weak seasonality and the effects of COVID-19, thanks to continued investments in 5G infrastructure and increased demand from cloud applications related to remote working and online education.

Specifically for DRAM, datacenter demand remained solid as usage of streaming services and online shopping rose. For mobile, decrease in set demand due to effects of COVID-19 and seasonality was offset by expanded adoption of high-density products by major customers. For PC, demand remained steady on the back of the increase in virtual meetings.

For NAND, mobile demand was relatively solid due to the expansion of products from major customers adopting high-density storage greater than 128GB. Demand for server SSD, mainly for datacenters, continued to grow alongside rising demand for high-volume content.

Looking to the second quarter, demand for DRAM is expected to remain firm across all applications due mainly to robust growth in server demand caused by the rapid rise in remote working, online education and streaming services. However, mobile demand may face high uncertainty. The Company will flexibly manage its product mix with a focus on growing server demand and strengthen cost competitiveness by expanding technology migration.

As for NAND, the market is seen as continuing to stabilize in the second quarter as the impacts from a decrease in smartphone set demand are offset by growing SSD demand from datacenters. The Company will focus on expanding demand for high-density server SSD of more than 2TB while continuing to extend migration to 5th-generation V-NAND.
 
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