There's been some interest, including in this forum, in the China investment plans in the IC industry. My colleague and I (at the U.S. International Trade Commission) recently published a working paper on this topic, which can be found at the link below:
We use the market share assumptions found in the Made In China 2025 Green Paper on Technological Innovation in Key Areas (2017) to project future production and consumption, market growth, market share trends in each country/region. We find that if the Green Paper’s assumptions hold, the competitiveness of the IC industries in the U.S., EU and Japan will decrease significantly. We conclude however that the Green Paper uses highly questionable assumptions and highly optimistic growth projections, making these shifts in production and consumption unlikely to be realized as forecast.
We'd be interested in your feedback/criticism/reaction.
We use the market share assumptions found in the Made In China 2025 Green Paper on Technological Innovation in Key Areas (2017) to project future production and consumption, market growth, market share trends in each country/region. We find that if the Green Paper’s assumptions hold, the competitiveness of the IC industries in the U.S., EU and Japan will decrease significantly. We conclude however that the Green Paper uses highly questionable assumptions and highly optimistic growth projections, making these shifts in production and consumption unlikely to be realized as forecast.
We'd be interested in your feedback/criticism/reaction.