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EDAC CEO Forecast Event Report!

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Tonight was my debut as moderator at the EDAC CEO Forecast event. I'm generally not the nervous type but I have to tell you it was VERY uncomfortable in front of those lights, blinding really.

And I made the horrible mistake of saying "talk like brothers" versus something non gender biased in regards to improved communications, offending Peggy A. and a significant portion of the audience including my wife, again my apologies. But in my defense my sons get along much better than my daughters but I digress......

Other than that it went pretty well. The food was excellent (The brownies were to die for) and the bar was open so I have no complaints.

There were plenty of questions from the audience and we ran a little long on time but I feel it was a great start and good for EDA on a whole. There is even a picture up already here. The camera adds 10lbs, right?

I do feel however that tonight was an example of the disconnect between what really goes on in the trenches of semiconductor design and manufacturing versus the perception of people not in the trenches and as a result EDA continues to be grossly underrated.

One thing I hope we can all agree on is that there is definitely room for better communication inside and outside of EDA and I hope meaningful conversations can continue here on SemiWiki.

Cheers,

D.A.N.
 
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Tonight was my debut as moderator at the EDAC CEO Forecast event. I'm generally not the nervous type but I have to tell you it was VERY uncomfortable in front of those lights, blinding really.

It wasn't just you. Those lights looked too bright from the audience side too.

And I made the horrible mistake of saying "talk like brothers" versus

Peggy A's comment was priceless (I paraphrase): "4% of Homo sapien DNA is Neanderthal, and 4% of EDA is women."

One thing I hope we can all agree on is that there is definitely room for better communication inside and outside of EDA

What if we communicate better and investors still don't care? Is EDA just too esoteric, or algorithms too intangible, to ever be "hot"?

Cheers,

Beth
 
Here is the link to the 2010 EDAC CEO Panel. I will post the link for this years panel when available (1 - 2 weeks). Be sure and watch 2010 first, it should make me look better.

"What if we communicate better and investors still don't care? Is EDA just too esoteric, or algorithms too intangible, to ever be "hot"?

As I mentioned, I have been using the EDA360 example with investor calls with great success. They get EDA360 as something new, exciting, and understandable. My compliments to John Bruggeman and staff. Unfortunately EDA360 is a Cadence product and not an industry initiative so Wally, Aart, and Rajeev, will never acknowledge its existence.

If, however, EDA360 was an EDAC term and all EDA companies were behind it investors would follow, believe it.

So my challenge to EDAC and the EDA community on a whole is to come up with a new marketing communications program that can do the same, replacing "Where Electronics Begins". Add a cool YouTube video and watch it go viral!

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED?

D.A.N.
 
Here are links to Richard Goering and Peggy Aycinena's coverage of the event. Both are very well done! Hopefully someone will post more information on Aart's relationship with his toaster:

"Anything of value will get smarts. Your car, your body, your children, every appliance in your kitchen. It will be interesting when we start to compete with the IQ level of our toasters, that chatty little bastard.”
 
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I was at the CEO panel too. Because the panel was held before any of the companies had announced their 2010 results there was even less forecasting in the forecast that usual.

I thought that the most interesting slide was Wally Rhines's slide that I'd not seen before that showed that all the growth in EDA has always come from new areas. Custom IC (layout and circuit simulation) was the first area, and has been flat since 1980. PCB was next and has been flat since 1990. ASIC flat since 1995. COT flat since 2005. He predicted (this was a keynote at the 2004 DAC) that the growth would come from AMS/RF, DFM and ESL.

Wally also had two algorithms for predicting growth in EDA. One is the growth in semiconductor R&D budgets the previous year, which gives 14% for 2011. The other, to take the consensus analyst forecasts for the big 3 EDA companies, and treat that as 73% of the industry and so bump it up by a third to get 100%. This gives a forecast of 7% for 2011.

The R&D algorithm also points to where the growth will occur. Semi R&D in Japan was down 11% in 2010 (year-to-date which I assume means through 3Q even though it is 2011), down 4% in North America, flat in Europe but up an astounding 41% in China and India. Of course those markets are much smaller but it shows dramatically how the balance is shifting. It doesn't take many years of 40% versus 4% growth to close a large gap.

As regards to whether investors "get" EDA. I think EDA is a relatively small mature market with low growth. Investors like to focus on high growth markets with the potential to be large. If it starts to grow fast again then investors will take some interest. EDA360 may be a catchy term, but until it translates into growth is is just that.

Paul
 
Video of the EDAC CEO Panel is up:

EDA Consortium2011

Let me know how I did!

Watch last year's for perspective:

EDA Consortium 2010

You were funny! What really happened to your foot?

You made the CEOs not comfortable which is good. I think they are too comfortable in their jobs. Wally was funny too. Aart does not like you. Ravi was too serious. Charlie is not close to his workers. Cadence Connections died years ago.

When EDA vendors come calling they say very bad things about the other vendors. Synopsys and Cadence hate each other I'm sure of it. They all hate Magma because Magma has the best pricing.

Thank you for posting the link. It was fun to watch! EDA is a big toe hahahahahaha!
 
Okay I watched the whole thing. It was hard to follow Cadence and Berkeley Design and Synopsys didn't seem to have a plan at all. Mentor was interesting. He should write some industry books or lecture. I don't really see what all that accomplished though. I tried to watch the 2010 one but it was really bad. They do this every year? They pat themselves on the back for jobs well done? Pretty arrogant if you ask me.
 
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