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CHIPS act is dead - just look at our actual priorities

mozartct

Member
Call off the dogs. The CHIPS act is dead. It will not pass in one form or another this year. I am not sure that it's good or bad as there's been many iterations. What I do know is that as a country, we are laser focused... on other things. Consider that in the last 20 years:

1- We decided that unlimited and unregulated funding of our political process was a good thing.
2- We decided that companies have their own faith
3- We have not modernized public transportation in any way (airports, trains, etc.)
4- We decided not to lower our energy consumption
5- We decided that offshore wind (where it is windy i.e. Jersey and MA) would not happen (via litigation). In fact, we have decided that climate change is not real.
6- We decided that we will put women and doctors in jail (see yesterday)
6- We decided that carrying guns in bars and churches and everywhere else is a good idea.
7- Pricing reform of healthcare, scientific literacy, eliminate the penny, your favorite no-brainer here - we have done NOTHING and will do NOTHING.
etc.

The facts speak for themselves. As central as semiconductor is to everything, we are spending our money, our time and political energy elsewhere. Do you think for a NY minute that our performative congressmen and women give a hoot about CHIPS or technology in general? Do they even know what technology is? We rage-tweet while TSMC is working on 2 nm GAA.
 

blueone

Active member
Call off the dogs. The CHIPS act is dead. It will not pass in one form or another this year. I am not sure that it's good or bad as there's been many iterations. What I do know is that as a country, we are laser focused... on other things. Consider that in the last 20 years:

1- We decided that unlimited and unregulated funding of our political process was a good thing.
That pesky 1st Amendment, and off-topic.
2- We decided that companies have their own faith
I have no idea what this means.
3- We have not modernized public transportation in any way (airports, trains, etc.)
Incorrect. I fly regularly, and every airport I take off from or land in seems to be under construction. Even that abomination of an airport, Laguardia, has been massively reconstructed.
4- We decided not to lower our energy consumption
Incorrect again. There are government regulations for improved energy consumption efficiency for just about everything. For example:


Vehicle fuel economy standards have been increased:


5. We decided that offshore wind (where it is windy i.e. Jersey and MA) would not happen (via litigation). In fact, we have decided that climate change is not real
The US subsidizes wind and solar power massively.
6- We decided that we will put women and doctors in jail (see yesterday)
Off-topic.
6- We decided that carrying guns in bars and churches and everywhere else is a good idea.
Off-topic.
7- Pricing reform of healthcare, scientific literacy, eliminate the penny, your favorite no-brainer here - we have done NOTHING and will do NOTHING.
Now you're being weird. Eliminating the penny?
etc.

The facts speak for themselves. As central as semiconductor is to everything, we are spending our money, our time and political energy elsewhere. Do you think for a NY minute that our performative congressmen and women give a hoot about CHIPS or technology in general? Do they even know what technology is? We rage-tweet while TSMC is working on 2 nm GAA.
You haven't listed any facts. Intel is working on GAA too. I think Congress does care about chip technology, but they really don't understand it, and they don't want to compromise other agendas to smooth the path to getting fabs built in the US.
 
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mozartct

Member
@blueone

What I am trying to say (perhaps too subtle way) is that we have made the changes that we wanted to make (in fact that a minority wanted to make). You can claim that all these issues (Citizen United, Roe, etc.) are not relevant but they are. Polarization (well funded by the people who benefit from the status quo - See Koch et al, Wall Street) has crippled us and the CHIPS act is its latest victim.

It's not Congress that does not care about tech, it's all of us. We much rather organize parades, prayer days, picket abortion clinics, burn down buildings (see PDX), than sit down constructively and decide where we want to go. At the moment, a minority (which changes issue by issue) is calling the shots. In this environment, it does not matter than a so-called majority is in favor of the CHIPS act. A minority can and will block it.

As to the penny, we lose money on everyone we make. Nearly all countries have eliminated that denomination including our neighbors to the north. It would seem a no-brainer to just stop making pennies. Yet here we are. If that's difficult, then imagine CHIPS or overall of science curriculum in HS.

At any rate, DOA it is and the fabs in OH may well be out the window or slowed down dramatically.
 

blueone

Active member
@blueone

What I am trying to say (perhaps too subtle way) is that we have made the changes that we wanted to make (in fact that a minority wanted to make). You can claim that all these issues (Citizen United, Roe, etc.) are not relevant but they are. Polarization (well funded by the people who benefit from the status quo - See Koch et al, Wall Street) has crippled us and the CHIPS act is its latest victim.

It's not Congress that does not care about tech, it's all of us. We much rather organize parades, prayer days, picket abortion clinics, burn down buildings (see PDX), than sit down constructively and decide where we want to go. At the moment, a minority (which changes issue by issue) is calling the shots. In this environment, it does not matter than a so-called majority is in favor of the CHIPS act. A minority can and will block it.

As to the penny, we lose money on everyone we make. Nearly all countries have eliminated that denomination including our neighbors to the north. It would seem a no-brainer to just stop making pennies. Yet here we are. If that's difficult, then imagine CHIPS or overall of science curriculum in HS.

At any rate, DOA it is and the fabs in OH may well be out the window or slowed down dramatically.
I don't agree. Did you read the article referenced in another post:


Both the House and Senate bills are terrible and full of partisan useless nonsense. $8B in the House bill for developing countries to adjust to climate change? Seriously? On a global scale that's a useless drop in the bucket, and what it is doing in the CHIPS bill? Both bills increase centralized technology planning and research. The House bill has a nearly undirected $45B pot of money to "improve supply chains". The Senate bill reinstates useless tariffs. Both chambers have a lot to be ashamed of, and I don't think I'd like either one to become law.

From the tone of your posts and issues you mention, you appear to sympathize with the progressive agenda, your comments have more than a hint of conspiracy theory. The CHIPS bills are failing because no one I can see in Congress has anything but partisan agendas in mind, and the President is not providing any thought leadership. If we really wanted to make the US a chip manufacturing power again the President would drive the agenda. He's not.
 

mozartct

Member
Where one falls on the political spectrum has very little to do with the facts at hand. Statis is where we are, whether we like it or not. I have no agenda but like my peers, I see that my competitors in South Korea and Taiwan (and arguably China) are leaping ahead, by virtue of sustained investments within a favorable governmental framework. What is the net: I spend most of my time in Asia as it is more cost effective, even though it is far away.

I would love to see more manufacturing done here but despite the tsmc and intel new builds + TI Sherman and Samsung Taylor, the real stuff is happening elsewhere. See Nanya ground breaking this week and Micron's increased investments in Taichung complex.

Blame Biden, blame Trump, blame whoever you want. It's not one person, it is societal.
 

coldsolder215

Active member
At this point it's a luxury to talk about "competing" with "Asia", not because we can't but because by now most Americans are concerned exclusively with their domestic enemies. All of the best engineers, scientists, philosophers, and artists, people who paved the way for modernity, came out of Germany riiiiight before the Nazis seized power and drove them away with crackpot racist mythologies as to why the country was miserable. And thank god for that because it won the war for the allies. It sucks to be around for the downfall of an empire because that's when human depravity really starts to show and most genocides occur, but here we are.

For consolation, abortion has been practically impossible for over half the populace for a while now due to our post-industrial economy, obscene healthcare system, and cravenly opportunistic politicians. The gang of Catholics we call the Supreme Court are simply crossing the i's and dotting the t's. We'll see if it's overreach, perhaps Marbury v. Madison gets torched as part of a coup d'etat led by some low-level Army officers. Those guys wanna "compete" with "Asia", but they'll have to so reign in these senile old fogies to make it happen.
 

tooLongInEDA

Active member
At this point it's a luxury to talk about "competing" with "Asia", not because we can't but because by now most Americans are concerned exclusively with their domestic enemies. All of the best engineers, scientists, philosophers, and artists, people who paved the way for modernity, came out of Germany riiiiight before the Nazis seized power and drove them away with crackpot racist mythologies as to why the country was miserable. And thank god for that because it won the war for the allies. It sucks to be around for the downfall of an empire because that's when human depravity really starts to show and most genocides occur, but here we are.

For consolation, abortion has been practically impossible for over half the populace for a while now due to our post-industrial economy, obscene healthcare system, and cravenly opportunistic politicians. The gang of Catholics we call the Supreme Court are simply crossing the i's and dotting the t's. We'll see if it's overreach, perhaps Marbury v. Madison gets torched as part of a coup d'etat led by some low-level Army officers. Those guys wanna "compete" with "Asia", but they'll have to so reign in these senile old fogies to make it happen.
Not an American, but I suspect this "all our best engineers came out of Germany" line really is not true. Quite a few were Hungarians (von Neumann ...) and plenty were American born (Shannon ...).

Stop beating yourselves up guys ! It's not that bad in the US (there's always crazy stuff going on, even in "normal" times in the US). People wouldn't be queueing up to get in if it were.
 

blueone

Active member
Not an American, but I suspect this "all our best engineers came out of Germany" line really is not true. Quite a few were Hungarians (von Neumann ...) and plenty were American born (Shannon ...).
It isn't true, but the foundation for this point of view comes out of the early US space program and Operation Paperclip. The US is a country that has benefited from significant immigration, so many technical leaders are immigrants, and IMO that's a good thing.
Stop beating yourselves up guys ! It's not that bad in the US (there's always crazy stuff going on, even in "normal" times in the US). People wouldn't be queueing up to get in if it were.
As a US citizen (and born here) I like it when we're feeling inadequate and behind the curve. That's often when we do our best work. Remember the paranoia around the Japanese creation of their 5th Generation Computer Systems initiative created by the Japanese government under MITI in the 1980s? US companies formed a consortium called Microelectronics and Computer Technology Company, and SEMATECH as responses to the paranoia. Or the big stink about how Japan had pulled ahead in the development of analog HDTV, was going to steal the entire American television industry? Innovation is often born out of fear and paranoia. Complacency often happens when one is fat, dumb, and happy. I say let the paranoia get worse. It's probably justified in the case of semiconductors.
 

tooLongInEDA

Active member
It isn't true, but the foundation for this point of view comes out of the early US space program and Operation Paperclip. The US is a country that has benefited from significant immigration, so many technical leaders are immigrants, and IMO that's a good thing.

As a US citizen (and born here) I like it when we're feeling inadequate and behind the curve. That's often when we do our best work. Remember the paranoia around the Japanese creation of their 5th Generation Computer Systems initiative created by the Japanese government under MITI in the 1980s? US companies formed a consortium called Microelectronics and Computer Technology Company, and SEMATECH as responses to the paranoia. Or the big stink about how Japan had pulled ahead in the development of analog HDTV, was going to steal the entire American television industry? Innovation is often born out of fear and paranoia. Complacency often happens when one is fat, dumb, and happy. I say let the paranoia get worse. It's probably justified in the case of semiconductors.
Absolutely. A lot of people are writing the USA off these days (an error I've made in the past). My view is that you're currently at peak pessimism: the only way is up. The US is far more likely to relaunch itself from a period of fat, lazy complacency (which has gone on for rather too long) than Europe.

You'll survive with or without the CHIPS Act.
 

hist78

Well-known member
I don't agree. Did you read the article referenced in another post:


Both the House and Senate bills are terrible and full of partisan useless nonsense. $8B in the House bill for developing countries to adjust to climate change? Seriously? On a global scale that's a useless drop in the bucket, and what it is doing in the CHIPS bill? Both bills increase centralized technology planning and research. The House bill has a nearly undirected $45B pot of money to "improve supply chains". The Senate bill reinstates useless tariffs. Both chambers have a lot to be ashamed of, and I don't think I'd like either one to become law.

From the tone of your posts and issues you mention, you appear to sympathize with the progressive agenda, your comments have more than a hint of conspiracy theory. The CHIPS bills are failing because no one I can see in Congress has anything but partisan agendas in mind, and the President is not providing any thought leadership. If we really wanted to make the US a chip manufacturing power again the President would drive the agenda. He's not.

Talking about the climate change related funding in the Chips Act. If we start looking into the US Federal budget for various agencies, this type of earmarks and amendments have been going on for many years. I'm not commenting on it's right or wrong, but It's been a typical exercise done by both parties and many members (if not majority of them) of the Congress and Senate.

Those same Congressmen and Senators who opposed the Chips Act will not regret the earmarks and amendments they have done before that inflated the federal budgets. They will not hesitate to do it many times again in the future on other federal budgets for whatever good or not so good reasons.

The Chips Act happened to be one they feel they can oppose and score political gains without too much negative consequences.

The Chips Act hasn't died yet. Many times before the reconciliation between Senate and Congress eventually brought comprised agreements.
 

Barnsley

Member
It isn't true, but the foundation for this point of view comes out of the early US space program and Operation Paperclip. The US is a country that has benefited from significant immigration, so many technical leaders are immigrants, and IMO that's a good thing.

As a US citizen (and born here) I like it when we're feeling inadequate and behind the curve. That's often when we do our best work. Remember the paranoia around the Japanese creation of their 5th Generation Computer Systems initiative created by the Japanese government under MITI in the 1980s? US companies formed a consortium called Microelectronics and Computer Technology Company, and SEMATECH as responses to the paranoia. Or the big stink about how Japan had pulled ahead in the development of analog HDTV, was going to steal the entire American television industry? Innovation is often born out of fear and paranoia. Complacency often happens when one is fat, dumb, and happy. I say let the paranoia get worse. It's probably justified in the case of semiconductors.
Chaos is the mother of invention.

I live in the land of stability , and they havent had an original thought here for 30yrs.

Govt spends all its money paying companies to come here
 

blueone

Active member
Talking about the climate change related funding in the Chips Act. If we start looking into the US Federal budget for various agencies, this type of earmarks and amendments have been going on for many years. I'm not commenting on it's right or wrong, but It's been a typical exercise done by both parties and many members (if not majority of them) of the Congress and Senate.
I agree, but I still don't like the NIH-like centralized research and planning. The NIH is mostly a waste of money.
 

mozartct

Member
More succinctly, our real societal priorities are controlled by minority groups and are at odds with science and tech needs.

As intel is prepared to break ground in OH, lawmakers in that state are working on banning abortion, forcing intel to design and implement out of state travel policies for medical care. Arguably, intel has more important priorities (like finding employees and tools) but here they are. I am not talking about money, I am talking about collective mind share.

We are embarking on another 50 years of futile shirt tearing that will consume whatever good will exists in the land. Semi manufacturing is complicated, needing a whole of society effort, from public infrastructure, school curriculum, tax policies, etc. I fear that we are incapable of whole-of-society efforts, even where there is a country-wide consensus.

We will get our 4-5 fabs while Taiwan, Korea and China will get 30 or 40. In the end, quantity will make a qualitative difference. It already has.
 

Node55

New member
More succinctly, our real societal priorities are controlled by minority groups and are at odds with science and tech needs.

As intel is prepared to break ground in OH, lawmakers in that state are working on banning abortion, forcing intel to design and implement out of state travel policies for medical care. Arguably, intel has more important priorities (like finding employees and tools) but here they are. I am not talking about money, I am talking about collective mind share.

We are embarking on another 50 years of futile shirt tearing that will consume whatever good will exists in the land. Semi manufacturing is complicated, needing a whole of society effort, from public infrastructure, school curriculum, tax policies, etc. I fear that we are incapable of whole-of-society efforts, even where there is a country-wide consensus.

We will get our 4-5 fabs while Taiwan, Korea and China will get 30 or 40. In the end, quantity will make a qualitative difference. It already has.
How do you propose to solve that issue?

The same is happening here in Germany, but in contrast to the US, we have a political system with multiple parties (we have a proportional representation with 6 parties in parliament). The Ukraine war helped us reflect a little bit more carefully on the Merkel decade(s), and look at some strategic and tactical errors we made along the way.

We don't have these large civil dividers like BLM, reproductive discussions, gun violence, medical care etc. and we still completely fumbled software, internet and automation of services via software, basically everything post 1990s.
Funny story: Ukraine refugees look at the German paper-centric government and laugh at our state. They have all governmental services digitally.

My guess is, it may be difficult having a rational discussion, if you need emotions to generate clicks for advertisers to pay you. Ideally hate or anger. Those are really good triggers to stop your brain from working

Edit: It could also have something to do with the over-aging of populations. I once read that ppl get more conservative after hitting 55. The largest cohort in the German election is over 55, so basically pensioners. So a "continue as usual" is basically their election creed. That's what Merkel stood for and why she was elected 4 times as our chancellor.
 
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lilo777

Active member
How do you propose to solve that issue?

The same is happening here in Germany, but in contrast to the US, we have a political system with multiple parties (we have a proportional representation with 6 parties in parliament). The Ukraine war helped us reflect a little bit more carefully on the Merkel decade(s), and look at some strategic and tactical errors we made along the way.

We don't have these large civil dividers like BLM, reproductive discussions, gun violence, medical care etc. and we still completely fumbled software, internet and automation of services via software, basically everything post 1990s.
Funny story: Ukraine refugees look at the German paper-centric government and laugh at our state. They have all governmental services digitally.

My guess is, it may be difficult having a rational discussion, if you need emotions to generate clicks for advertisers to pay you. Ideally hate or anger. Those are really good triggers to stop your brain from working

Edit: It could also have something to do with the over-aging of populations. I once read that ppl get more conservative after hitting 55. The largest cohort in the German election is over 55, so basically pensioners. So a "continue as usual" is basically their election creed. That's what Merkel stood for and why she was elected 4 times as our chancellor.
The comparison with Ukraine shows two sides of the coin though. I am also familiar with the fact that the new republics (created after the breakup of the Soviet Union) have some success in computerization of their governments (this includes Russia too). Some of it may have something to do with the fact that they were starting almost from scratch. On the other hand, computerization or not, nobody is going to claim that Ukrainian government (widely believed to be one of the most corrupt in Europe) is more efficient than the one in Germany.

Edit: also, in addition to age, prosperity might be a factor. People in developed countries are not going to work as hard as people in the developing countries (like China). In this regard, US might be in a little bit better shape because of immigration. If you look at the employees of high tech companies in US, most of them are immigrants (as in first generation immigrants). When choosing a profession nowadays Americans have very few incentives to go into high tech. They will prefer law, business, marketing, medicine, communications etc. The fact that US brings some many immigrants for high tech might also be a factor (much less foreign competition for other professions).
 
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blueone

Active member
Edit: also, in addition to age, prosperity might be a factor. People in developed countries are not going to work as hard as people in the developing countries (like China). In this regard, US might be in a little bit better shape because of immigration. If you look at the employees of high tech companies in US, most of them are immigrants (as in first generation immigrants). When choosing a profession nowadays Americans have very few incentives to go into high tech. They will prefer law, business, marketing, medicine, communications etc. The fact that US brings some many immigrants for high tech might also be a factor (much less foreign competition for other professions).
You're stereotyping. Many people in the US work six or seven days per week, and often more than ten hours per day. I was a 6x11 person myself when I was working. I can't speak for Europe since I've never worked there. In Israel, I know people who worked through the shelling of Haifa in 2006 by living in the bomb shelters in their offices and sending their families to stay in the south. That's dedication, and I've been to Israel enough that I know it's a developed country. The US high-tech industry is rife with examples of people sleeping in their offices to achieve objectives. I'm not convinced Asian immigrants work longer or harder than native US workers, and I've worked with and managed many people from both origins.

As for "most" employees of high tech companies being immigrants, you can do the internet searches yourself, but the population estimates in science and engineering I see are about 25% immigrants. Personally, I think this is awesome. The US is still attracting some of the best trained people from around the world, and they make the nation more innovative, productive, and efficient. I agree that there are fewer native US students going into STEM fields than there should be. I think this is partly the fault of our uncompetitive primary and secondary education systems, especially in mathematics. If you're not comfortable with mathematics you can't be successful in physics, and if you don't understand physics you can't be successful in many sciences necessary for semiconductor research and development. I hate to sound repetitive, but the US needs to fix this weakness in math education.
 

mozartct

Member
@Node55 I am totally hopeless. The "status quo" people (the racich, the old) will make sure that things stay the way they are. Hey, they like the systems. Visit the Hamptons in the summer, trust me, those people do not care about where tech comes from. They have weaponized the crazies (figuratively and literally) so that we can't have a conversation veering into a purity test. "Oh, you are like this (liberal, conservative, whatever) therefore..." We are in for 50 years of fights leading to where I do not know.

@blueone I put the ratio of immigrants higher than 25%. I would say more like 50% at the newer fabs. I am an immigrant myself so it does not bother me one bit but politically, it means those employees carry very little weight. Hell, they may not even be voters. I mean it's not like their are going to picket Capitol Hill. Korea, Taiwan, China are succeeding (again, in semi manufacturing) without the immense benefit of immigration.

As I say, don't look at what we wish was true, look at what we have accomplished. We wanted more guns, we have them. We wanted higher profit margins, we outsourced. Etc. I could go on and on. Our record is not good.
 

lilo777

Active member
You're stereotyping. Many people in the US work six or seven days per week, and often more than ten hours per day. I was a 6x11 person myself when I was working. I can't speak for Europe since I've never worked there. In Israel, I know people who worked through the shelling of Haifa in 2006 by living in the bomb shelters in their offices and sending their families to stay in the south. That's dedication, and I've been to Israel enough that I know it's a developed country. The US high-tech industry is rife with examples of people sleeping in their offices to achieve objectives. I'm not convinced Asian immigrants work longer or harder than native US workers, and I've worked with and managed many people from both origins.

As for "most" employees of high tech companies being immigrants, you can do the internet searches yourself, but the population estimates in science and engineering I see are about 25% immigrants. Personally, I think this is awesome. The US is still attracting some of the best trained people from around the world, and they make the nation more innovative, productive, and efficient. I agree that there are fewer native US students going into STEM fields than there should be. I think this is partly the fault of our uncompetitive primary and secondary education systems, especially in mathematics. If you're not comfortable with mathematics you can't be successful in physics, and if you don't understand physics you can't be successful in many sciences necessary for semiconductor research and development. I hate to sound repetitive, but the US needs to fix this weakness in math education.
I work for a large US high tech company myself and I work with several semiconductor related companies on the west coast so, at least for anecdotal evidence, I do not need internet searching :) My unscientific impression is that today most hired recent college graduates are from India, Middle East etc. Available statistic is difficult to deal with. For example, when providing statistics for employee composition (diversity etc.), it is rare that they separate engineering from marketing, HR, economists etc. The process started long ago. I remember in the late 1990s east coast companies like DEC still had many engineers who were US-born but when traveling to Silicon Valley one would already see quite a different picture. Former immigrant RCGs had time to make a career and now we see a number of CEOs from India in some of the most prominent tech companies (deservedly so).

I also have an impression that in US people work harder (less social security in terms of health insurance, unemployment benefits, vacations etc.) than in Europe. Also as I understand, in this regard, US are far from China and some other countries. In China the government is trying to break the "996 work culture" - where people work 9am to 9pm, six days a week. I remember seeing the photos of Huawei offices with foldable beds under the desks (people sleeping at work to avoid going home over night).
 

blueone

Active member
@Node55 I am totally hopeless. The "status quo" people (the racich, the old) will make sure that things stay the way they are. Hey, they like the systems. Visit the Hamptons in the summer, trust me, those people do not care about where tech comes from. They have weaponized the crazies (figuratively and literally) so that we can't have a conversation veering into a purity test. "Oh, you are like this (liberal, conservative, whatever) therefore..." We are in for 50 years of fights leading to where I do not know.

@blueone I put the ratio of immigrants higher than 25%. I would say more like 50% at the newer fabs. I am an immigrant myself so it does not bother me one bit but politically, it means those employees carry very little weight. Hell, they may not even be voters. I mean it's not like their are going to picket Capitol Hill. Korea, Taiwan, China are succeeding (again, in semi manufacturing) without the immense benefit of immigration.

As I say, don't look at what we wish was true, look at what we have accomplished. We wanted more guns, we have them. We wanted higher profit margins, we outsourced. Etc. I could go on and on. Our record is not good.
The problem with anecdotal evidence is that it's anecdotal. I was looking at the surveys of the technical & scientific industries in general, because I was responding to a general comment. As for your response to Node55, you're obviously guessing.

Nonetheless, like I said in a previous post, IMO the US needs to prioritize technical education. For the most part we suck at it.
 
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