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China/Taiwan, The Most Dangerous Game, World Economic Collapse

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
It is undisputed that China seizing Taiwan would literally lead to a true worldwide conflict and this is now fully recognized in the financial market. If one thinks the auto chip shortage is bad, one can only imagine if the entire Taiwanese economy is taken out of the picture for even a short time, let alone an extended period. This literally has the power to totally disrupt the entire world economy and bring the entire world economy to the precipice of destruction. This is the highest stakes game since World War II and no industry will be immune. Semis have proven they a key to the world economy and Taiwan, notably TSM and its surrounding support structure is literally a keystone to the world's economy. All modern countries are involved in this and this is now literally the largest stakes in modern history. Without wisdom and cool heads, the whole world could take a giant leap backward literally in a matter of days. Now is the time for world leaders to confront this challenge that has already gone too far. Barron's the world's top financial journal has fully recognized this threat and put forth the damage that this conflict could cause. Semis are the foundation of the world economy and now facing a threat so serious, it must be dealt with worldwide. Now with cryptocurrency's relationship to China and the world economy, even currencies are in danger.

 
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Arthur Hanson

Well-known member

The world is all interdependent, much of the semi equipment and EDA comes from Europe and the US. The raw materials from Africa and the rest of the world. We are truly in an interdependent world more than ever. Collaboration and cooperation is the best and most profitable route we should all be taking, look how well its worked so far and modern tech can put collaboration and cooperation on steroids.
 

lilo777

Member
It is undisputed that China seizing Taiwan would literally lead to a true worldwide conflict and this is now fully recognized in the financial market. If one thinks the auto chip shortage is bad, one can only imagine if the entire Taiwanese economy is taken out of the picture for even a short time, let alone an extended period. This literally has the power to totally disrupt the entire world economy and bring the entire world economy to the precipice of destruction. This is the highest stakes game since World War II and no industry will be immune. Semis have proven they a key to the world economy and Taiwan, notably TSM and its surrounding support structure is literally a keystone to the world's economy. All modern countries are involved in this and this is now literally the largest stakes in modern history. Without wisdom and cool heads, the whole world could take a giant leap backward literally in a matter of days. Now is the time for world leaders to confront this challenge that has already gone too far. Barron's the world's top financial journal has fully recognized this threat and put forth the damage that this conflict could cause. Semis are the foundation of the world economy and now facing a threat so serious, it must be dealt with worldwide. Now with cryptocurrency's relationship to China and the world economy, even currencies are in danger.

Is not Biden administration trying to deal with this issue by investing in local manufacturing?
 

Jert

New member
None of this discussion would exist or be needed had China's certain party not made the "Made in China 2025" with the threatening message that "you should hand over all your technologies and I will make all the products and you should all go unemployed and live under my command". Too late to back track now. Semi industry has always been global and peaceful interdependence until China showed up. And now China claim they are the victim.
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
China can easily invade Taiwan, no question, but the backlash would be staggering as the conflict would not only severely damage the world economy but even more damaging to China. It would be far more profitable for China to avoid conflict than fuel it. If China invaded Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Viet Nam, India, Australia, and many others could go from partners to adversaries and this would in all probability include Europe, the US, with Russia as the ultimate wild card. Just being cut off from many, many key high-end technologies from other countries could have a disastrous impact on China. Being a true partner, customer and supplier is far, far more profitable for not only for China but the world.

One separate wild card to take into account is that Taiwan is one of the most intelligent countries on earth and there is no telling what solutions to the challenges ahead they may come up with. To underestimate Taiwan and what potential they have would be a fool's game.
 
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Paul2

Active member
China can easily invade Taiwan, no question, but the backlash would be staggering as the conflict would not only severely damage the world economy but even more damaging to China. It would be far more profitable for China to avoid conflict than fuel it. If China invaded Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Viet Nam, India, Australia, and many others could go from partners to adversaries and this would in all probability include Europe, the US, with Russia as the ultimate wild card. Just being cut off from many, many key high-end technologies from other countries could have a disastrous impact on China. Being a true partner, customer and supplier is far, far more profitable for not only for China but the world.

One separate wild card to take into account is that Taiwan is one of the most intelligent countries on earth and there is no telling what solutions to the challenges ahead they may come up with. To underestimate Taiwan and what potential they have would be a fool's game.

China cannot. It simply don't have the amphibious capability... yet. It would not be even able to repel aggression from US force in Korea, and Japan unless spending the limited supply of its ballistic missiles, which are their only minimally credible insurance against US force from CONUS coming.

On other note, everybody is guessing the real use purpose of this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwania_(supercomputer) , why there is so much secrecy around it, and why Taiwanese military is keeping watch of it.

And yes, US can, without any doubt, overwhelm China, or Russia in an all out war scenario all by itself with relatively low price.

That is a one big IF hugely depending on the amount of political willpower, but if money speak anything America may prefer to loose Europe over Asia. US strategic planners I've read are all utterly aware of all points you outlined.

US spends more money, and already has more troops in Asia than in Europe. Bigger, and bigger military assets are being moved to Asia, and at a cost US would've never committed to if not for highest level executive assent. Entire new weapon systems with decades long manufacturing, and deployment timelines, for which China is the only apparent target, are now in pipelines of defence contractors.

If the future of 21st century is in Asia, then US is making a definite bet on it.
 
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tonyget

Member
China cannot. It simply don't have the amphibious capability... yet. It would not be even able to repel aggression from US force in Korea, and Japan unless spending the limited supply of its ballistic missiles, which are their only minimally credible insurance against US force from CONUS coming.

According to war simulations conducted by the US in 2020,US military lose to China every time in the event of Taiwan crisis.

 
Entire new weapon systems with decades long manufacturing, and deployment timelines, for which China is the only apparent target, are now in pipelines of defence contractors.
Brit detected. Have you seen our F-35?

According to war simulations conducted by the US in 2020,US military lose to China every time in the event of Taiwan crisis.

This. No plan survives first contact.
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
China cannot. It simply don't have the amphibious capability... yet. It would not be even able to repel aggression from US force in Korea, and Japan unless spending the limited supply of its ballistic missiles, which are their only minimally credible insurance against US force from CONUS coming.

On other note, everybody is guessing the real use purpose of this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwania_(supercomputer) , why there is so much secrecy around it, and why Taiwanese military is keeping watch of it.

And yes, US can, without any doubt, overwhelm China, or Russia in an all out war scenario all by itself with relatively low price.

That is a one big IF hugely depending on the amount of political willpower, but if money speak anything America may prefer to loose Europe over Asia. US strategic planners I've read are all utterly aware of all points you outlined.

US spends more money, and already has more troops in Asia than in Europe. Bigger, and bigger military assets are being moved to Asia, and at a cost US would've never committed to if not for highest level executive assent. Entire new weapon systems with decades long manufacturing, and deployment timelines, for which China is the only apparent target, are now in pipelines of defence contractors.

If the future of 21st century is in Asia, then US is making a definite bet on it.
China cannot. It simply don't have the amphibious capability... yet. It would not be even able to repel aggression from US force in Korea, and Japan unless spending the limited supply of its ballistic missiles, which are their only minimally credible insurance against US force from CONUS coming.

On other note, everybody is guessing the real use purpose of this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwania_(supercomputer) , why there is so much secrecy around it, and why Taiwanese military is keeping watch of it.

And yes, US can, without any doubt, overwhelm China, or Russia in an all out war scenario all by itself with relatively low price.

That is a one big IF hugely depending on the amount of political willpower, but if money speak anything America may prefer to loose Europe over Asia. US strategic planners I've read are all utterly aware of all points you outlined.

US spends more money, and already has more troops in Asia than in Europe. Bigger, and bigger military assets are being moved to Asia, and at a cost US would've never committed to if not for highest level executive assent. Entire new weapon systems with decades long manufacturing, and deployment timelines, for which China is the only apparent target, are now in pipelines of defence contractors.

If the future of 21st century is in Asia, then US is making a definite bet on it.
 

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
Osama bin Laden developed a low-cost form of war that has so far cost the US well over a trillion dollars while costing little. Our military has been an expensive failure and the last conflict we had with any success at all was the Korean war. War has changed radically and sadly the US military is geared to wars of old. Like many generals have said the best-laid plans can only last until the battle has started. War is unpredictable and the world is changing at an ever-accelerating rate that I have written about several times and I call "The Great Acceleration". One factor to consider is the Taiwan Defence Act, which is not a treaty but a US domestic law that the President would be legally bound to follow, which is very unusual over a treaty. Our military has not learned from the Middle East and other near-total failures. I'm a firm believer in seeking collaboration and cooperation for both sides even if requires great effort. I believe all sides could win if we work towards fostering a new technological revolution that will be far, far more profitable and beneficial than war.


 

Jert

New member
If war is all about destruction, US will win China 1000% and more. China is no match in modern warfare, other than having far more head counts to sacrifice. But US will face high likelihood for failure because US's moral obligation for post-war revival of the destroyed nation. eg, badly failed in Iraq, Afghanistan in recent years, even though historically wildly successful in post WWII Germany, Japan. If we destroy China and then try to revive and restore order, that will absolutely be a nightmare. So US position should focus on repelling China aggression on Taiwan and South China Sea. The technology blockade since Trump is definitely working, as demonstrated by China's crying wolf noise everyday. Don't listen to the China propaganda. They can never be equal to great democracies of the world.
 
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