China Must Seize TSMC
- Thread starter Arthur Hanson
- Start date
fansink
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That is both true and coherent.
That would be important if it was the only communication from US on this subject. It was not. US confirmed on many occasions their single China position.
This is a fair point, a key point. The US never behaved this way in the Cold War, and has become more lawless in the post-Cold War. US used to place property rights and due process above all, as bedrock.
Recently CCP has required senior cadres sell overseas assets, perhaps a clue about Taiwan and sanctions.
WSJ News Exclusive | China Insists Party Elites Shed Overseas Assets, Eyeing Western Sanctions on Russia
An internal Communist Party directive bars senior officials from owning property abroad or stakes in overseas entities, whether directly or through spouses and children.
www.wsj.com
China Bans Government Elites from Holding Overseas Real Estate Assets
The Communist Party demanded its key members unload assets abroad in a move it hopes will help insulate it from potential sanctions.
therealdeal.com
scottyouminlin@gmail.com
New member
Putin invades Ukraine by claiming they share the same Russian origins and cultures, Xi Jing-Ping tells a similar story, but which is wrong in fact.
There are several waves of immigrants in Taiwan in the history at least more than 6,000 years, and Taiwan is also a major body of the sources of Austronesian that spread over the Indo-Pacifics islands for the last 4,000 years according to the latest anthropology study.
Taiwan as an independent sovereign state is based on the fact that it has its own people, constitution, laws, government, military, jurisdiction and democracy. It is not based on your argument, or a misuse of the statement of US document or laws.
When you said that by return Taiwan to China and China will own TSMC is simply rediculous.
It is an invasion, a war, that will kill thousands or millions of people's life, destroy TSMC and the supply chain, not only the semiconductor, but also the electronics and everything around Asians waters.
The Communists in China seize people's property, seize enterprises' property, not based on laws or rules, but based on it's own interests. Just looking at the tragedies in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and the latest black days of those Chinese largest private companies like Alibaba, Tescent, etc. That is the real face of CCP.
I am appreciated very much to read those professional and engineering insights in this forum and would hope continue so.
"It is not based on your argument, or a misuse of the statement of US document or laws." It's not just one statement. It's a coherent policy. I am not arguing at all whether Taiwan deserves to be an independent state. I really don't qualify for such discussion. I just said that US do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. There is no ambiguity about it whatsoever. Wikipedia:
At the height of the Sino-Soviet Split, and at the start of the reform and opening of People's Republic of China, the United States strategically switched diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (ROC) to the People's Republic of China (PRC) on January 1, 1979, to counter the political influences and military threats from the Soviet Union. The US Embassy in Taipei was 'migrated' to Beijing and the Taiwanese Embassy in the US was closed. Following the termination of diplomatic relations, the United States terminated its Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan on January 1, 1980.
The reason you get so many disussions about Taiwan here is because Arthur regularly creates new threads on this subject. I am guessing it has something to do with the fact that many members of this forum invest in TSMC so the interest in China-Taiwan situation is not a surprise. And TSMC obviously is a very important semiconductor company. However, I disagree with the argument that TSMC plays a big role in shaping up Chinese Taiwan policy. As I understand, Beijing views unification as a matter of sovereignty and all economic aspects, while important in general, can't change Chinese strategy.
The parallels with Ukrainian situation here are really a stretch. The genesis of the two situations is completely different. There is one potentially common aspect though. In both cases, the two small countries are the subjects of geopolitics between the super powers. And, unfortunately, geopolitics failures too often lead to wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Ukraine etc.). Let's hope Taiwan avoids this scenario.
Russia vs. Ukraine really resembles more a second Sino-Japanese war than anything. Similarly ROC was betrayed, and backstabbed by all of sun-setting empires, not for the want of Japanese victory, but for a fear of rising China. They didn't think of Japan as a credible threat, and in one decade, Japan marched across Asia claiming one Western colony after another.
We are already hearing that Germany has signed a Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0 with Russia, along with French, for a bid to become a great power again.
WW3 is coming, and many of us, or our children will have to go, fight, and die there. It's as inevitable, as fighting a tiger who sighted you as a prey. Simple truth of life - you feed a monster for 30 years, and some day he will try to eat you.
Bringing this back to semiconductors. I espouse the grassroots-populist attitude that you can make America great again if we bring the factory jobs back, maybe strengthen unions, maybe increase pay and respect for factory work. All of this is starting to happen in semiconductors now, and it’s an amazing development, which should be celebrated.
At the same time, China’s and Russia’s desperation seems to be growing, out of the blue (or out of the pandemic perhaps), threatening to upend the progress. I’ve been curious about it, and Peter Zeihan seems to have the explanations: Demographics and deglobalization are working against China and Russia, and within this decade, he claims, these countries won’t matter anymore.
At the same time, China’s and Russia’s desperation seems to be growing, out of the blue (or out of the pandemic perhaps), threatening to upend the progress. I’ve been curious about it, and Peter Zeihan seems to have the explanations: Demographics and deglobalization are working against China and Russia, and within this decade, he claims, these countries won’t matter anymore.
tooLongInEDA
Moderator
I think you've just brought it back round to geopolitics again with your final comments !
I'm not sure about the re-industrialisation. One thing that is striking though - look at one of those US stock market "heat maps" with the coloured rectangles, each block proportional to the company market valuation. The US stock market is dominated by tech companies, followed by healthcare and financials. The valuations are way out of line with actual employment patterns in the companies. Perhaps the US population (and/or the Fed) need to stop pushing tech stock valuations up so high ?
My gut feel is that our worries about China are over-stated - the demographics and hidden problems (massive debts, insaane housing market, fake growth, unreliable accounting) will act as a huge brake. It feels like they've already hit the inflection point on the growth curve where everything starts to slow down.
Russia and China are in some ways the last empires and will I suspect suffer from this (Russia did not completely decolonise after 1991 and appears to be trying to reinstate its empire). Because they are continental empires, it's easy to overlook the fact that they are empires.