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Is the Meteor Lake product line competitive? If the answer is yes, Intel should do everything to deliver it on time, including outsource CPU tile to TSMC.
As an IDM it is more difficult to gauge capacity requirements. If I were Pat I would plan for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully Pat has CPU teams designing at both Intel and TSMC to make sure they have the capacity available in case of emergencies. That is the beauty of tiles and chiplets. Less susceptible to yield ramping problems and you can multi source.
Unless Intel has a separate team working on the CPU tile with TSMC's design kit in parallel to Intel's own, it's hard to believe Intel can switch from Intel manufacturing to TSMC fab in such short time frame.
On the other hand, Intel doesn't have enough and right products that the market needs. Intel missed the historical semiconductor market boon across all leading edge and mature node products that almost every semiconductor company has been enjoyed. Intel's flat 2021 revenue growth and shrinking 2022 revenue is a strong indication that Intel desperately needs right products to sell.
Without the right products to offer, Intel can slip into a nice but second tier product company. It's more serious than if Intel can regain leadership in manufacturing. Apple already left Intel, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and many other traditional Intel customers are doing their own inhouse semiconductor projects or buying products from Intel's competitors. Intel's customers can't wait and won't wait for Intel.
Is the Meteor Lake product line competitive? If the answer is yes, Intel should do everything to deliver it on time, including outsource CPU tile to TSMC.
As an IDM it is more difficult to gauge capacity requirements. If I were Pat I would plan for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully Pat has CPU teams designing at both Intel and TSMC to make sure they have the capacity available in case of emergencies. That is the beauty of tiles and chiplets. Less susceptible to yield ramping problems and you can multi source.
Very good point. So many different Intel projects were delayed in the last 6-12 month.If Pat can pull everything together really quickly, he is a magician.
All data will be greatly appreciated
Tigerlake mobile sold for a while even alongside alderlake mobile. I wouldn't read too much into that. They're on different nodes and different architectures so they could launch at nearly the same time and focus on different segments.Honestly the odds that the CPU Tile is fabricated by TSMC is almost 0.
1. Intel would on more then one occation lied to investers
2. This would indicate additional volume that was not planned
3. The time from tape-out to production for intel is more then 12 month
Whats likely happend is the following.
Everything on intels plan is basically delayed
SPR --> GA Q2/Q3 2023
Raptorlake Desktop --> Dec 22
Raptorlake Notebook --> Q2/23
Intel ARC (TSMC 6N) --> China only
The problem is that especially Raptorlake is launching to late. Makes no sense to launch Raptor and Meteor inbetween 3-4month
To add on to this. Cometlake and icelake sold concurrently. With icelake only really being found in premium thin and lights, while cometlake was found in the cheaper/larger laptops/desktop.Tigerlake mobile sold for a while even alongside alderlake mobile. I wouldn't read too much into that. They're on different nodes and different architectures so they could launch at nearly the same time and focus on different segments.