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I think your inputs are correct and have lowered my confidence that Rapidus will be successful.
Their official plan is to supply high volume 2nm 2027. Lets see how that progresses
Agreed. The deal would involved Rapidus providing cash, TSMC would create a deal where they control it and cannot lose money. Rapidus gets to claim they are a semiconductor Fab company. I have been involved with a couple of these agreements over the years.
But lets go back to original...
I dont know if TSMC is doing vendor managed inventory/holding end product for customers. it would be a pretty popular tool with a lot of their customers. WIP valued at cost is inventory also as Claus mentioned
As I have said before, The Rapidus model does not make sense. Single wafer doesn't work (trust me, I have looked at it). Building a 2nm process in partnership with IBM to compete with TSMC in 2027 does not work. The financial investment model does not work
There may be something to Rapidus but...
"“My idea is single-wafer processing,” Koike said. “It means the fab does not have any stock, so I can manufacture very precisely to control the cycle time.”"
Dream is the right word (single wafer processing, no inventory). I think I worked on a project like this years ago. It doesn't typically...
Reminder: Purpose of Chips act is to get more fabs in US. Not to help Intel, Not to help profits..... Getting the most successful Fab company in history to build a plant in the US is great. Also ... the ITCs pay in 2024 regardless of of the other awards.... good for investment.... but...
Whenever 20A and 18A ramp. Our model is that D1 can support it through 2025 unless demand improves. Fab 52 should be capable of shipping production by Q32025 for Intel to be successful (IMO)
Lets focus on Gaudi and not codenames (I can give a history of code names and "problematic" ones (not all Israeli) over a beer.
Why is Intel struggling to get any traction in AI hardware? Intel has been working on this for years. What is holding them back
Intel fell behind in technology in late 2010s and Chose to outsource to TSMC to save money and have leading tech. Then Pat decided to go big on foundry and new technologies and commit 5-7 new fabs and compete with TSMC and work with the government. That was 100% Pat's choice. Intel was not...
TSMC AZ is going to be a enormous impact to AZ and the US. Chips act is delivering!
I don't know about Japan food.... If you said Singapore food, Taiwanese food, or Shanghai food.... Maybe :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
I am sure Bloomberg or Facebook or the National Enquirer said the impact would be huge. within a day people who work at TSMC and people who live in Taiwan said there was not a major impact to the Factories.
neither the 65B or the 100B is real. those are made up numbers.
TSMC, the leading silicon producer in the world is building factories in the US, this is great. Intel is building new factories in the US, this is great.
The boost to AZ is going to be amazing from all of this. I should have...
historically the price was allocated cost from manufacturing. The allocated cost from process development went to product groups also. So OM for product groups was poor due to inefficient manufacturing and development.
Under the new model, the product groups are charged fair market price...
Just to re-iterate couple points. This P&L is not just due to 2022 downturn or to skipping EUV or to too many expedites. The issue is that that the process could be as inefficient as needed to get the product out. So that is what was done. It works great as a IDM. its is not good as a foundry...
30% of Intels wafers used are from TSMC in 2024. Meteor lake, Lunar lake, Arrow Lake, Panther lake 70% of the Silicon is TSMC with backup plans that can take that higher.
