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Search results

  1. R

    TSMC 4th QTR 2020 Earnings Discussion

    We had expected $20B in spend or something north of that as the additive spend of 3NM and Arizona would likely cost a bunch more money but $20B to $28B is a huge uptick that reeks of a high level of confidence in both customer demand as well as confidence in being able to implement the...
  2. R

    Change of CEO at Intel announced

    Bob Swan leaves Intel- Pat Gelsinger, ex CTO, Intel lifer returns A change for the better as someone who knows technology Maybe the board at Intel read our last note Our recent note on Intel and its historical issues and decisions being faced was obviously well timed. We view the news of Bob...
  3. R

    Taiwan Semiconductor Expected to Announce Arizona Factory as soon as Friday per WSJ

    This is something that has been speculated about for a long time , something we and others have spoken about, including recently. We said in our note two weeks ago that TSMC was likely one of three targets of the proposed embargo/licensing rule (the other two more obvious targets being Huawei...
  4. R

    April Fools not so foolish- Jinhua & Micron Marriage?

    Our April 1st Jinhua/Micron prediction proves prescient... In our annual April Fools edition we predicted the potential marriage of Micron and Jinhua, not just as a joke but because it clearly made a lot of sense in many ways. The unique set of circumstances seemed to work. It now looks like...
  5. R

    New Multi E Beam tool answers ASML & AMAT!

    KLAC reported Q1, 2018 revenues of $970M and EPS of $1.80 versus street of $943M and $1.63 in EPS. Guide was flattish at $930M to 990M and $1.59 to $1.83 versus street $978M and $1.69 EPS. Importantly management guided to $4B in revenues in 2018. The mix was 40% foundry in the current quarter...
  6. R

    Semi Stocks peaked weeks ago & drifted down Where do we go from here?

    Semi Stocks peaked weeks ago & drifted down... Where do we go from here? Up, Down or Sideways... Business remains strong but is that good enough? Semi/Semi equipment stocks peaked on June 8th and have been down/sideways since then after a very strong and very long run. Given how much the...
  7. R

    TSMC's capex is a cloud over a huge industry

    TSMC's capex is a cloud over a huge industry party. Record business is straining the industry. China & Trump are wildcards- Waiting for the hangover... Party like its 1999 - We recently attended as a speaker and panel moderator talking about M&A and China, SEMI ISS 2017 (Industry Strategy...
  8. R

    ASML: EUV slow/steady progress to 5NM & 2020

    ASML Reports/Guides In Line- Q2 orders offset Q1 EUV slow/steady progress to 5NM & 2020 HMI provides bonus to ASML- Negative for KLAM Improving outlook for H2 as expected by overall industry... ASML reported revenue of $1,914B and EPS of $0.91 which was more or less in line with...
  9. R

    Softbank gets ARMHed for IOT/Mobile battle! Intel, wouldacouldashoulda bought ARM???

    Semiconductor M&A Booms with $32B ARMH Buyout, Devalued Pound Helps Softbank Strategic Aquisition, Value in Hardware and Infrastructure... SoftBank of Japan has struck a deal to buy ARMH, ARM Holdings, for $32B. This is a whopping, eye popping 43% premium over Fridays close. In the press...
  10. R

    Semicon Update- Solid Show- No Surprises- Good Tone for Qtr & H2

    Industry Tone remains positive on 3D NAND & TSMC. H2 on track better than H1- 10NM build outs Small/Mid caps positive offsets missing headliners. Despite the lack of analyst meetings from AMAT, KLAC & LRCX, there is more than enough data from other industry players to confirm the long held...
  11. R

    2016 & 2017 outlook: While DRAM declines NAND seems immune

    As NAND pricing falls - units continue to increase. Can NAND demand grow to infinity and beyond? Memory is the ultimate commodity in the semiconductor market and thus tends to behave like many other commodity markets. Pricing is inversely proportional to demand. Moore's law relentless price...
  12. R

    AMAT has good Q2 with great orders and great guide!

    NAND + China + Display + Share gains = higher growth. Applied gets its MoJo back- All cylinders on line! Applied reported revenues for its fiscal Q2 (April) of $2.45B and EPS of $0.34 jsut above street of $2.43B and $0.32. Orders were up a whopping 52% Q/Q and 37% Y/Y to a 15 year high of...
  13. R

    How does slowing iPhone sales impact chip industry?

    iPhone replaced PC in chips, what can replace iPhone? A blip or a trend? Seasonality revisited... Unless you have been marooned on a desert island for the last ten years you are aware that Smartphones, and in particular the IPhone has displaced the PC as the main driver of the semiconductor...
  14. R

    TSMC reports In Line Revenues & Penny EPS beat Slow Inventory recovery

    Last week TSMC (TSM) reported revenues in line at $6.14B which in line with expectations and down about 8% Y/Y. EPS was $0.38 a penny above the street but also down Y/Y about 18%. The slow recovery in chip inventories is continuing. Not "all shook up"... It seems the February...
  15. R

    After a strong bounce off Q4 bottom Q1 may slow Weak macro & semi sales do not foster

    After a strong bounce off Q4 bottom Q1 may slow Weak macro & semi sales do not foster While we expect an improving 2016 through the year we will not likely see another big "bounce" as we did off of a very low Q4 bottom. This means that the sequential increase is slowing and investors may have...
  16. R

    APPL landmark deal for INTC CPUs -fixes encryption

    APPL landmark deal for INTC CPUs -fixes encryption ASML outbids LRCX for KLAC - To save EUV Chinese investor group takes stake in AMAT Intel and Apple jointly announced a breakthrough deal in which Intel will supply the CPUs for Apple Iphones and Ipads replacing Apples internal custom...
  17. R

    2016 Semi Capex & Seasonality trends- 10nm rollout- Multi-Patterning vs. EUV

    Tick Tock Tock Tock....WTFOCK? Expected H2 10nm spending ramp may push into Q4 Although progressing, EUV HVM still slips out Weak end market demand may crimp volume buys Most analysts and industry pundits have built up 2016 semiconductor capex spending projections assuming a strong H2...
  18. R

    Apple A10, Samsung & TSMC

    Does TSMC win of Apple A10 hurt Samsung chip biz? What does it say about Samsung's Capex plans? PLAB pre-announce is worse for semis than itself... Evidence keeps mounting that TSMC has captured all of Apple's A10 business for the fall. What does this do to the only part of Samsung (Semis)...
  19. R

    Semicap Summary- December Quarter & 2016 Outlook- Where to from here?

    The expected recovery in 2016 started early for some... Q1 weak- Big H2? - Betting on the come for 10nm? Capex zero sum game= -Samsung +TSMC +Intel With most companies in the Semicap space reporting by now we see some obviously common themes- A bounce in the December quarter off the bottom- A...
  20. R

    Intel reports slight Beat & In line guide Focus is on slowing server group & lower GM

    Intel reports slight Beat & In line guide Focus is on slowing server group & lower GM Capex cut $10B to $9.5B implies no hurry on 10nm. Intel reported a slight beat coming in at $0.74 on $14.9B of revenues versus analysts at $0.63 on $14.8B - Gross Margins were 64.3%. The stock sold off after...
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