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Recent content by Paul2

  1. P

    China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026 - Knometa Research

    For the TSMC, the mainstream would be 65-28, where non-DP, and non-immersion nodes are. It's still a very huge market volumes-wise. 200mm is quite profitable, but: no equipment, no workers, the market will eventually cool down from the peak COVID craze 200mm wafer prices.
  2. P

    Biden-Harris Administration Announces Preliminary Terms with Samsung Electronics to Establish Leading-Edge Semiconductor Ecosystem in Central Texas

    If American's real concern was supply chain security, and ability to source chips in a large volume during a war with China, they would've bet more of GloFo. Instead, most of the top beneficiaries grants will go into low volume leading edge, which will not do anything about, say, MCUs, which...
  3. P

    India's entry into chip equipment manufacturing a masterstroke, says Fab Economics CEO

    Well, not much. All big contract manufacturers experimented manufacturing both in India, and China 20 years ago, but India had unions, and China did not. "Raw" costs were around the same in 200X in India, and China. Back in 200X, neither China, nor India were significant in components, and parts...
  4. P

    China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026 - Knometa Research

    I would say we are many years away from when the cheapest 300mm will approach the most advanced 200mm project in cost at MOQ.
  5. P

    Huawei Patent Shows 6x Multi-Patterning Surpassing EUV Resolution Without EUV

    You need only one weakest link in the very long, and very complex chain of subsidised companies supplying the factory to fail for the whole subsidised supply chain to stall. This is why subsidy of complex industries is an all or nothing affair. I remember how Japanese semiconductor grade...
  6. P

    China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026 - Knometa Research

    The volumes of ancient nodes was increasing, because nobody would make discretes, and trivial ICs on immersion steppers, but the total semi market been increasing faster than it, with the main driver being smartphones. No. Their financial backers will not swallow that even if they understood...
  7. P

    China to become world's largest source of IC wafer capacity by 2026 - Knometa Research

    China is largely playing the same game TSMC has played, except even more aggressively. TSMC has lost its focus on the mainstream market share when it started competing with IDMs for the leading edge. SMSC was building world largest 200mm fab when even laggards were moving to 300mm for good. It...
  8. P

    How China Could Swamp India’s Chip Ambitions

    China does not manufacture much of its own either. The tragicomedy there is that much of "Made in China" assemblies and modules also come half finished, or already finished from Taiwan/Japan/Korea, but they stored and accounted for accounting purposes as assemblies in China. Take smartphone...
  9. P

    How China Could Swamp India’s Chip Ambitions

    These people have no experience assembly and manufacturing, seemingly at all. ~90% of CE manufacturing outside of China is "bring everything from China as a knockdown kit" and do the final assembly to skirt few prevents of tariffs. Vietnam is by far ahead of India by 15 years, and almost none...
  10. P

    Huawei Patent Shows 6x Multi-Patterning Surpassing EUV Resolution Without EUV

    Much of bottom lines of state companies in China conceals stealth subsidies. Double digit of them. So just more of companies getting kept alive with direct cash disbursement will not be anything unusual, but China's non-subsidised private sector economy slowing down means less cash for state...
  11. P

    The Bleeding Edge of Semiconductors: A Tale of Three Companies || Peter Zeihan

    157i was not supposed to be water, diiodomethane I think
  12. P

    The Bleeding Edge of Semiconductors: A Tale of Three Companies || Peter Zeihan

    What's missing from the story: 157i Intel invested massively into new tools, but then the cycle caught up to them, and they had no courage to tank the losses. In the meanwhile, EUV has matured during the time span for which 157i was originally expected to hold. I think Intel did not expect...
  13. P

    High volume Android smartphone chips reject Samsung and TSMC latest nodes

    Yes, regardless of how much you have money, that's just awkward to put an extra $1k for a functional analogue of something 10-5 times cheaper, and often more convenient. No awkward hole in the screen, replaceable battery, often rugged design without glass on every side, and of course no weird...
  14. P

    Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI

    The guy looks and feels like Musk Elon UAE had an embarrassing episode few years ago when public figures got onto the bitcoin hype train, and then got massively burned, with headlines like "founder of Bitcoin fund A disappeared without a trace after soliciting $$$$$$$ from B and C" coming...
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