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I did a similar study last year using only publicly available data and came up with the same conclusion. The new Intel fabs (and now Micron) seem to upset the balance of supply and demand unless ASML has some huge productivity projects in their pipeline, some announced projects slip out in time...
I wonder how depreciation of TSMC's new equipment at an older node will impact its wafer costs... won't they be competing against others with fully depreciated toolsets?
