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Korea seeks chip self-sufficiency

Because Samsung and SK need even more financial incentives to even have a chance at being competitive in the memory market... Never know when Micron will swoop in and capture 80% of the market :unsure:
 
Is South Korea really safer than Taiwan? What about when North Korea has nuclear weapons? If they don’t already? People who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
Exactly the point I’ve made before. People forget South Korea is explicitly threatened with both conventional and nuclear destruction weekly by a deranged neighbour. People pretending they can derisk geopolitical issues out of their portfolio by not investing in Taiwan completely miss this fact. Good luck replacing Taiwan AND South Korea with a 50B one time bill spread out over a decade LOL. Good lord these people who REALLY think Semi production can be onshored in anywhere near significant numbers have zero clue. Watch CNBC for one day to see how clueless these money managers are about the semi ecosystem. It’s shocking
 
Exactly the point I’ve made before. People forget South Korea is explicitly threatened with both conventional and nuclear destruction weekly by a deranged neighbour. People pretending they can derisk geopolitical issues out of their portfolio by not investing in Taiwan completely miss this fact. Good luck replacing Taiwan AND South Korea with a 50B one time bill spread out over a decade LOL. Good lord these people who REALLY think Semi production can be onshored in anywhere near significant numbers have zero clue. Watch CNBC for one day to see how clueless these money managers are about the semi ecosystem. It’s shocking
Mostly agreed. However I view the matter a bit differently. Being able to be self sufficient is a pipe dream. Heck ever since the beginning of the bronze age self sufficiency has never happened again in human history. However more evenly balancing out the supply chain is a far more achievable/desirable goal. If tomorrow a war or natural disaster disrupted trade or production to SK and the ROC, then the rest of the world would be almost totally without leading edge DRAM, NAND, and logic chips (to say nothing of the good bit of the world's trailing capacity also becoming unavailable). If instead say 40%+ of that capacity came from the NA/EU/SE Asia/JP, then instead of a total breakdown in the modern world, you could just have massive shortages. Critical ICs for society's most important products could continue to be made (as well as smaller volumes of the products people would want but don't need). This would also allow for the path to recovery to be accelerated, after all it is much faster/cheaper to expand existing sites in the West/JP/SE Asia than to build new greenfield sites (as well as the obvious fact of having a smaller production shortfall in this scenario).

Watch CNBC for one day to see how clueless these money managers are about the semi ecosystem. It’s shocking
In their defence it isn't their job to know. You and I are probably just as clueless about the law, accounting, designing a good aircraft, detective work, or writing an award winning novel as they are semis. Even within our niches we have different knowledge. Assuming you are on the design side I couldn't tell you anything beyond architecturals details you would have learned in computer ENG 201/301. On the other hand you would probably be hard pressed to tell me anything about the rate of adsorption of etchants to the wafer surface and then use this to create a model for the etch rate for a given process. People generally tend to know what they need for their daily lives and not much more.
 
Mostly agreed. However I view the matter a bit differently. Being able to be self sufficient is a pipe dream. Heck ever since the beginning of the bronze age self sufficiency has never happened again in human history. However more evenly balancing out the supply chain is a far more achievable/desirable goal. If tomorrow a war or natural disaster disrupted trade or production to SK and the ROC, then the rest of the world would be almost totally without leading edge DRAM, NAND, and logic chips (to say nothing of the good bit of the world's trailing capacity also becoming unavailable). If instead say 40%+ of that capacity came from the NA/EU/SE Asia/JP, then instead of a total breakdown in the modern world, you could just have massive shortages. Critical ICs for society's most important products could continue to be made (as well as smaller volumes of the products people would want but don't need). This would also allow for the path to recovery to be accelerated, after all it is much faster/cheaper to expand existing sites in the West/JP/SE Asia than to build new greenfield sites (as well as the obvious fact of having a smaller production shortfall in this scenario).


In their defence it isn't their job to know. You and I are probably just as clueless about the law, accounting, designing a good aircraft, detective work, or writing an award winning novel as they are semis. Even within our niches we have different knowledge. Assuming you are on the design side I couldn't tell you anything beyond architecturals details you would have learned in computer ENG 201/301. On the other hand you would probably be hard pressed to tell me anything about the rate of adsorption of etchants to the wafer surface and then use this to create a model for the etch rate for a given process. People generally tend to know what they need for their daily lives and not much more.
Agreed. But when people are on T.V talking about how TSMC is currently investable because of geopolitical risk in Taiwan while simultaneously recommending AMD, APPLE AND NVIDA and every other company under the sun which is totally reliant on TSMC it makes me want to rip my hair out. These are the people who move the market which is all the more frustrating. I even heard a money manger call TSMC a commodity semi company the other day… I guess I have a low tolerance for confident ignorance.
 
Agreed. But when people are on T.V talking about how TSMC is currently investable because of geopolitical risk in Taiwan while simultaneously recommending AMD, APPLE AND NVIDA and every other company under the sun which is totally reliant on TSMC it makes me want to rip my hair out. These are the people who move the market which is all the more frustrating. I even heard a money manger call TSMC a commodity semi company the other day… I guess I have a low tolerance for confident ignorance.

One funny case (at least to me) is that Warren Buffett sold Berkshire's 86% holding on TSMC last quarter BUT bought more shares on Apple during the same quarter.

Some people believe it's because Mr. Buffett is worried about the tension between US and China and the negative impact on TSMC. The problem is that any bad things happen between Mainland China and Taiwan, it will not only severely damage TSMC's operations in Taiwan but also kill majority of Apple products that are assembled in China.

iPhones, iPads, Macs, Airpods, Beats headphones, and more, Apple's revenue can drop 50% or more if Mr. Buffett's TSMC concerns come true.

I really want to ask Mr. Buffett in person about this strange logic.
 
One funny case (at least to me) is that Warren Buffett sold Berkshire's 86% holding on TSMC last quarter BUT bought more shares on Apple during the same quarter.

Some people believe it's because Mr. Buffett is worried about the tension between US and China and the negative impact on TSMC. The problem is that any bad things happen between Mainland China and Taiwan, it will not only severely damage TSMC's operations in Taiwan but also kill majority of Apple products that are assembled in China.

iPhones, iPads, Macs, Airpods, Beats headphones, and more, Apple's revenue can drop 50% or more if Mr. Buffett's TSMC concerns come true.

I really want to ask Mr. Buffett in person about this strange logic.
It would drop more than 50% I reckon. If a war breaks out over Taiwan, basically all Apples assembly is wiped out in mainland china as well. Not to mention TSMC being offline. Being in Apple and not in TSMC makes literally no logical sense.
 
One funny case (at least to me) is that Warren Buffett sold Berkshire's 86% holding on TSMC last quarter BUT bought more shares on Apple during the same quarter.

Some people believe it's because Mr. Buffett is worried about the tension between US and China and the negative impact on TSMC. The problem is that any bad things happen between Mainland China and Taiwan, it will not only severely damage TSMC's operations in Taiwan but also kill majority of Apple products that are assembled in China.

iPhones, iPads, Macs, Airpods, Beats headphones, and more, Apple's revenue can drop 50% or more if Mr. Buffett's TSMC concerns come true.

I really want to ask Mr. Buffett in person about this strange logic.

Charlie Munger raised this point at the recent Daily Journal Corporation annual meeting on February 15. When asked about the semiconductor industry, he replied:

The semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry. In the semiconductor industry, you have to take all the money you've made, and with each new generation of chips, you throw in all the money you previously made. So it's compulsory investment of everything you want to stay in the game. Naturally, I hate a business like that. ... Now if you're now ahead of it, like Taiwan Semiconductor is, that may be a good buy at these prices. It's not at all clear to me that they're not going to succeed mightily. ... But it's a difficult business and requires everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money.
 
I read the article as seeking a government response to the US government's Chips Act.

I think, It's early days to assume the balance of fab location will shift west. The Chips Act notwithstanding.

Both Samsung and TSMC are planning to keep the newest technologies in country.

So unless Intel succeeds in catching up, the US will be, ironically, like China, 1-2 (or more?) generations behind.
 
I read the article as seeking a government response to the US government's Chips Act.

I think, It's early days to assume the balance of fab location will shift west. The Chips Act notwithstanding.
Even if only a quarter of the fabs people plan to build in the US come to fruition, this is still a massive investment in greenfield sites/expansions to existing sites that wouldn't have otherwise been made. Once Micron starts spending again they will also help the diversification efforts even if they don't build/expand in the US, because their go to fabs in SE Asia are farther away from the zones of conflict that folks are worried about.

Both Samsung and TSMC are planning to keep the newest technologies in country.

So unless Intel succeeds in catching up, the US will be, ironically, like China, 1-2 (or more?) generations behind.
It seems like Samsung's "3nm" plant in Texas will be when the technology is still very new (assuming the project doesn't get delayed). Per Samsung they want the fab to be "operational" in 2H24. Given that we will be lucky to see any real volumes of 3GAP this year, 2H24 might be when 3GAP is beginning to ramp in actual volumes.
 
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Even if only a quarter of the fabs people plan to build in the US come to fruition, this is still a massive investment in greenfield sites/expansions to existing sites that wouldn't have otherwise been made. Once Micron starts spending again they will also help the diversification efforts even if they don't build/expand in the US, because their go to fabs in SE Asia are farther away from the zones of conflict that folks are worried about.

It seems like Samsung's "3nm" plant in Texas will be when the technology is still very new (assuming the project doesn't get delayed). Per Samsung they want the fab to be "operational" in 2H24. Given that we will be lucky to see any real volumes of 3GAP this year, 2H24 might be when 3GAP is beginning to ramp in actual volumes.

I'm looking forward to GAA as much as anyone but I need to see a complex SoC manufactured on a process before I call it the leader.
 
I'm looking forward to GAA as much as anyone but I need to see a complex SoC manufactured on a process before I call it the leader.
For sure. Given 3GAE entered risk starts this year, and 3GAP is supposedly supposed to enter risk production this year, with this we would normally expect to see real 3GAE products in 2023. Of course this is the new Samsung we are talking about, and based on what is going on with 4LPE and 5LPE/4LPX I figured that we might see real 3GAE products in 2024. But who knows like I said maybe if we are lucky we get to see 3GAP in late 2024 with 3GAE being a 7LPE situation.
 
Is South Korea really safer than Taiwan? What about when North Korea has nuclear weapons? If they don’t already? People who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
N Korea said they will not attack South Korea. They will attack Japan directly.
But it's naive to believe those people.
 
N Korea said they will not attack South Korea. They will attack Japan directly.
But it's naive to believe those people.
NK is just making threats again and the US is kinda sick of it. That's my interpretation. The only reason why the US isn't saying much more is because they're dealing with Ukraine and Russia. Much bigger problems for the US, and they can just let Japan and SK hold military drills in response. To me, it kinda seems like status quo of Kim threatening nukes and the US responds with military drills, etc.
 
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