Congratulations. You dragged me into a partial fight (I agree with half of what you are saying).
If you strip off housing? Why would you do that? The BLS was caught lying recently. The inflation index is always changing to show less inflation. Higher interest rates will result in less competition. Hey, it's great for existing companies who can pass on the higher prices, and they will have no competition. Startups are screwed. They have to build up their assets at a higher interest rates and higher costs. As always, our government creates monopolies. Prices will continue to rise, but rents will decrease because people will rent by the rooms and live in backyard tests or minivans. Crime will continue to increase.
The Russia comment is out of scope, but now that you bring it up, we were the ones declaring war on Russia... since the brake-up of the USSR. We lied to Gorbachev. Promised to not extend NATO to the east, then proceeded to do the opposite of what we promised. China and Russia were natural enemies and have hated each other for 100s of years. All we did was pushed them towards each other. I was born in the US and am US biased, but Eisenhower called it in his 1960 speech and that is what is happening. Let's be honest here. Back to government spending...
I live in the US, but our government is out of control and both parties are going to keep spending. The US/dollar leadership is now threatened by China and it is time for war. That is what we do. We will spend the $$$ on technology. We have to.
The calculations that you guys came up with are appreciated and could be very accurate, but I believe there are 2 order variables that you guys are missing.
1) We are at war and competing in semis is probably considered mandatory now.
2) I only know of a few congressman/senators who want to balance our checkbook.
We are in unchartered territory. Too many variables.