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CHIPS act is dead - just look at our actual priorities

The Chips Act hasn't died yet. Many times before the reconciliation between Senate and Congress eventually brought comprised agreements.
I hope you're correct. I was reading in the Wall Street Journal this morning that TSMC is threatening to put a planned wafer plant targeted for Texas in Korea if the bill isn't passed. I wish I was more confident that Intel's and TSMC's threats were helping, rather than just pissing off the progressive politicians.
 
I hope you're correct. I was reading in the Wall Street Journal this morning that TSMC is threatening to put a planned wafer plant targeted for Texas in Korea if the bill isn't passed. I wish I was more confident that Intel's and TSMC's threats were helping, rather than just pissing off the progressive politicians.

Are you sure the proposed wafer plant expansion in Texas is from TSMC?
 
@blueone Your priorities or mine or anyone else's will be subsumed into our time-wasting political struggles. This is my central assertion.

I sell into universities. It sure seems like 90% of graduate students are 1st gen immigrants (in hard sciences).

tsmc is building a fab complex in Phoenix Arizona, not Texas.
Samsung is building a fab complex in Taylor TX.
TI is building a fab complex in Sherman TX.
Global wafers is a wafer maker. Not a fab.
 
@blueone Your priorities or mine or anyone else's will be subsumed into our time-wasting political struggles. This is my central assertion.

I sell into universities. It sure seems like 90% of graduate students are 1st gen immigrants (in hard sciences).

tsmc is building a fab complex in Phoenix Arizona, not Texas.
Samsung is building a fab complex in Taylor TX.
TI is building a fab complex in Sherman TX.
Global wafers is a wafer maker. Not a fab.

During the TSMC annual shareholders meeting held in Taiwan about two weeks ago, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu stated that the status of Chips Act will not impact the construction of their new Phoenix Arizona fab.

It makes me think the decision to build a >$10 billion fab should be a strategical decision. One-time government subsidy is an important factor but there are several long term considerations must be included in the decision process. Otherwise a $10 billion fab can become a black hole that will burn billions of dollars.
 
During the TSMC annual shareholders meeting held in Taiwan about two weeks ago, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu stated that the status of Chips Act will not impact the construction of their new Phoenix Arizona fab.

It makes me think the decision to build a >$10 billion fab should be a strategical decision. One-time government subsidy is an important factor but there are several long term considerations must be included in the decision process. Otherwise a $10 billion fab can become a black hole that will burn billions of dollars.
It is a strategic move for TSMC to build a FAB in US because US wanted/demanded it. It's not necessarily the case for other companies (like Intel or Samsung) which may already have FABs in US and are free to build wherever they see fit and subsidies will be an important consideration for them just like they are for TSMC in most cases.
 
CHIPs act failing could be the best thing.
I’m sure Intel and others will take the money, if it’s ever offered, or picture it as being string-free, but that is a pipe dream. There will be strings.
Anyway, one of the fun things for me these windy and sunny days in Austin is to monitor the wind and solar production on the Austin Energy website. It’s down to 25% wind at 9:30pm, at the moment. It usually runs 65% renewable during the day as West Texas gets sun all day long and the wind never ends here.
Texas has some of the cheapest electricity in the world, and a clear path to expand and grow without carbon. The geography is unique, having the semi-desert of West Texas be so good for solar, plus near population and industry, and windy on top of that. That’s a real good reason to build a fab in Texas, and TI and others are doing that.

China has blackouts, is constrained in energy, and I worry the existing fabs in China may not operate if it worsens, perhaps this winter. Let alone building more fabs.

Germany is heading in the same direction, very energy constrained, no need to discuss it further. It’s for a noble cause.

Building fabs in much of the world is crazy, because of the changes since February 24 this year. But we’re lucky here in the US, in Texas particularly. We are looking up, literally, at the sun and wind as the limits to growth.
 
It sure seems like 90% of graduate students are 1st gen immigrants (in hard sciences).
Don't forget that since the 80s our universities operate more like hedge funds or real estate investment firms. This means that the wealthiest families across the globe, happy to pay absurd premiums to get their kids into even the most mediocre of schools, have huge priority over US kids stuck in our emaciated public education system. It's also an important part of our neocolonialist policy to Americanize these rich foreigners whether they stay here or not.
 
Don't forget that since the 80s our universities operate more like hedge funds or real estate investment firms. This means that the wealthiest families across the globe, happy to pay absurd premiums to get their kids into even the most mediocre of schools, have huge priority over US kids stuck in our emaciated public education system. It's also an important part of our neocolonialist policy to Americanize these rich foreigners whether they stay here or not.

My experience with foreign-born grad students is that they are better prepared. US graduates go into other fields, for the most part.

@benb Texas is hardly an example of sane power management. See Winter Storm. Effects within semi business still widely felt. Other areas have cheaper fully green hydro power: upper NY State (Niagara power plant), Quebec, much of Norway and Sweden. There is a strong semi cluster in TX going back 50 years or more but it has nothing to do with electricity.
 
For completeness on the view of CHIPS act from overseas:

 
@benb Texas is hardly an example of sane power management. See Winter Storm. Effects within semi business still widely felt. Other areas have cheaper fully green hydro power: upper NY State (Niagara power plant), Quebec, much of Norway and Sweden. There is a strong semi cluster in TX going back 50 years or more but it has nothing to do with electricity.
How do you expand Niagara Falls to build 20 new fabs over 20 years?

Texas power management is dysfunctional, on purpose; high prices provide incentives to produce more, so there is incentive for blackouts and crises. Short term crises are a price of a pure producer-only system (close to a pure free market).

I basically agree the CHIPs act is dead and the priorities are skewed. That puts me in a mindset of, what actually makes sense, rather than what the politicians or culture incentivize. And of course you are right, there are many other factors. Still, Texas geography is uniquely good for solar and wind production, and fabs use a lot of power. There are 3 fabs operating on Austin Energy right now—Infineon, NXP, and Samsung. On about 50% renewable wind and solar power except at night (wind is about 15% even at night). Taiwan and Korea can’t match that.
 
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How do you expand Niagara Falls to build 20 new fabs over 20 years?

Texas power management is dysfunctional, on purpose; high prices provide incentives to produce more, so there is incentive for blackouts and crises. Short term crises are a price of a pure producer-only system (close to a pure free market).

I basically agree the CHIPs act is dead and the priorities are skewed. That puts me in a mindset of, what actually makes sense, rather than what the politicians or culture incentivize. And of course you are right, there are many other factors. Still, Texas geography is uniquely good for solar and wind production, and fabs use a lot of power. There are 3 fabs operating on Austin Energy right now—Infineon, NXP, and Samsung. On about 50% renewable wind and solar power except at night (wind is about 15% even at night). Taiwan and Korea can’t match that.
Personally, I think putting gigafabs in Western NY is a bad idea, though the power challenges are easily solved with a mix of US and Canadian power. (NY is a high tax, strongly pro-union state with a declining population and terrible weather.) The two existing power projects, the Robert Moses on the US side of the Niagara River, and the Canadian facilities generate about 4.5GW of electricity in the Falls area. Quebec has substantial other hydropower facilities, and there is substantial transmission infrastructure, though I suspect none of it is state of the art (very high voltage AC or DC). To put the Falls area hydropower capability in perspective, that's equal to something like 9% of Taiwan's total generation capacity. Quebec generates over 40GW of hydropower as a province, which is over 80% of Taiwan's total generation capacity. It seems to me that Quebec or Ontario would be better choice than NY, if Canada would invest the same $50B the US is thinking about. Just a thought, Mr. Trudeau.

What Texas, Arizona, and Ohio have that other states don't is motivation. I wish motivation could be put in pill form, and given to members of Congress.
 
@blueone @benb You are making the argument for me. Our actual actions as a country point to polarization and status quo. We will expand our energy talking past one another because we are unable/unwilling to make compromises, regardless of the topic. Circling back to the beginning, my contention is that the things that have actually changed in last 30 years are related to guns, abortion, declaring that a company can have a faith (see Hobby Lobby) etc.
These issues occupy all the space. Anything else representing "progress" is not happening and will not happen. Not now, not ever. Our many minority groups will make sure that it does not. And if by miracle something were to happen, groups would immediately form to oppose whatever it is and litigate it to death.
 
Mozartct, agree, US politics is impossible, for now. The focus has shifted to states.
Back to Texas: One of the ways Texas can screw this up is if they don't build more transmission lines and start making use of "curtailed" energy, which is wasted due to a deficit of transmission. This should be a no brainer, but, transmission projects take 6-10 years, longer than political will or memory.

Urgh so dumb, free power going to waste.
 

According to this CNBC report:

"DeWine, a former U.S. senator and congressman, said he has received assurances from former colleagues on both sides of the aisle that the law will be passed soon."

Mike DeWine, governor of Ohio and a Republican, can't even get a single "Yes" vote for Chips Act from his fellow Republican US Congressmen from Ohio, 12 of them.

How silly and incompetent it is!
 
According to this CNBC report:

"DeWine, a former U.S. senator and congressman, said he has received assurances from former colleagues on both sides of the aisle that the law will be passed soon."

Mike DeWine, governor of Ohio and a Republican, can't even get a single "Yes" vote for Chips Act from his fellow Republican US Congressmen from Ohio, 12 of them.

How silly and incompetent it is!
Yeah, I agree. DeWine needs to internalize that old television commercial about "this is your brain on drugs".

 
Mozartct, agree, US politics is impossible, for now. The focus has shifted to states.
Back to Texas: One of the ways Texas can screw this up is if they don't build more transmission lines and start making use of "curtailed" energy, which is wasted due to a deficit of transmission. This should be a no brainer, but, transmission projects take 6-10 years, longer than political will or memory.

Urgh so dumb, free power going to waste.

Do you think Texas, as an isolated power grid, should participate US East or West power grid?
 
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