I know the narrative lately has been about Intel...but what about Samsung? Their stated goal is to supersede TSMC in process technology by 2030. Samsung is investing $116 billion towards that goal, and South Korea has indicated that it will invest 1.5 trillion won ($1.34 billion USD) to assist Samsung (and SK Hynix) develop their next generation technology.
The tech media generally recognizes TSMC, Samsung and Intel as the only bleeding-edge foundries. With Intel currently slipping in process technology, it would seem like Samsung is the only viable competitor to TSMC for process technology leadership. However as Robert Maire pointed out, their previous 10nm and 7nm (yield rate is rumored to be about 30%) launches have been a disaster. Digitimes recently indicated that Samsung is struggling to improve their 5nm process yield. Moreover when Scotten Jones compared TSMC, Intel and Samsung...it seems the state of Samsung's process technology to be more or less equivalent to where Intel is now.
Samsung's decision to skip 4nm and go directly to 3nm GAAFET feels like a "bet the farm" move to me. It seems like a high risk bet for Samsung to bring a new technology into the market on-time AND with good yield. During a recent earnings call, TSMC chairman (Mark Liu) indicated that Samsung's 3nm GAAFET was only roughly equivalent to TSMC's current 5nm process node. TSMC's future (superior?) 3nm process is scheduled to be introduced around the same time as Samsung's 3nm. The only upside that I can see is that Samsung's engineers become well-versed in GAAFET that their 2nd-generation product will be superior to TSMC's future products going forward.
But what ultimately maybe more worrying for Samsung (and SK Hynix), is China's recent entry into the DRAM/NAND market. It's been speculated that China's state-sponsored/state-supported firms will cause a memory glut and result in lower profit margins and perhaps even a collapse of a current supplier. If this happens, Samsung may soon no longer be able to use their profits from their memory business to subsidize their foundry...and perhaps their only means to beat TSMC.
Those are my thoughts on Samsung....would appreciate hearing what others think regarding Samsung's future.
The tech media generally recognizes TSMC, Samsung and Intel as the only bleeding-edge foundries. With Intel currently slipping in process technology, it would seem like Samsung is the only viable competitor to TSMC for process technology leadership. However as Robert Maire pointed out, their previous 10nm and 7nm (yield rate is rumored to be about 30%) launches have been a disaster. Digitimes recently indicated that Samsung is struggling to improve their 5nm process yield. Moreover when Scotten Jones compared TSMC, Intel and Samsung...it seems the state of Samsung's process technology to be more or less equivalent to where Intel is now.
Samsung's decision to skip 4nm and go directly to 3nm GAAFET feels like a "bet the farm" move to me. It seems like a high risk bet for Samsung to bring a new technology into the market on-time AND with good yield. During a recent earnings call, TSMC chairman (Mark Liu) indicated that Samsung's 3nm GAAFET was only roughly equivalent to TSMC's current 5nm process node. TSMC's future (superior?) 3nm process is scheduled to be introduced around the same time as Samsung's 3nm. The only upside that I can see is that Samsung's engineers become well-versed in GAAFET that their 2nd-generation product will be superior to TSMC's future products going forward.
But what ultimately maybe more worrying for Samsung (and SK Hynix), is China's recent entry into the DRAM/NAND market. It's been speculated that China's state-sponsored/state-supported firms will cause a memory glut and result in lower profit margins and perhaps even a collapse of a current supplier. If this happens, Samsung may soon no longer be able to use their profits from their memory business to subsidize their foundry...and perhaps their only means to beat TSMC.
Those are my thoughts on Samsung....would appreciate hearing what others think regarding Samsung's future.